پديد آورندگان :
ﻓﺮﯾﺪ ﮔﯿﮕﻠﻮ، ﺑﻬﻨﺎم داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﮐﺎﺷﺎن - داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ و ﻋﻠﻮم زﻣﯿﻦ , قضاوي، رضا داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﮐﺎﺷﺎن - داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ و ﻋﻠﻮم زﻣﯿﻦ , دﺧﺎﻧﯽ، ﺳﯿﺎﻣﮏ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﮐﺎﺷﺎن - داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ و ﻋﻠﻮم زﻣﯿﻦ
كليدواژه :
ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر , ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﻓﺴﻔﺎت , ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب , نيترات , ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺷﺮب
چكيده فارسي :
رودﺧﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﻫﻤﯿﺸﻪ در ﻃﻮل ﺣﯿﺎت ﺑﺸﺮي ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺎﻣﯿﻦ آب آﺷﺎﻣﯿﺪﻧﯽ و ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﻮده، در ﺷﮑﻞﮔﯿﺮي ﺗﻤﺪن ﻫﺎي ﺑﺸﺮي ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ارس ﯾﮏ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﺮزي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب ﺷﺮب ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ و روﺳﺘﺎﻫﺎي اﻃﺮاف آن ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ارس در ﺣﺎل ﺣﺎﺿﺮ و ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ آن ﺑﺮاي دوره آﺗﯽ و ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر RCP اﻧﺠﺎم ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، داده ﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ دﺑﯽ، ﺑﺎرش، NO3 ،COD ،Do ،BOD ،EC ،SO4 ،TDS و PO4 ﻃﯽ دوره آﻣﺎري 1374-1397 ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب WQI ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرش و دﻣﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر RCP ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺮ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ، ﺑﯿﻦ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﺑﺎرش، دﺑﯽ و ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب رواﺑﻂ رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮﻧﯽ ﺑﺮﻗﺮار ﺷﺪ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺎرش و دﺑﯽ در دوره 2017-2036، ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب ﺑﺎ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ WQI ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي RCP4.5 ،RCP8.5 و RCP2.6 ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪ. در ﺿﻤﻦ، ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﻓﺴﻔﺎت و ﻧﯿﺘﺮات ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل SWAT ﺑﺮاي دوره آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﺮآورد ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﻧﯿﺘﺮات، ﻓﺴﻔﺎت و COD در ﻫﺮ ﺳﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﺑﻮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﻓﺴﻔﺎت و ﻧﯿﺘﺮات ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل SWAT ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺮاي ﻫﺮ ﺳﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ را ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺮ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ WQI ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺑﺪ ﻗﺮار دارد )ﺷﺎﺧﺺ WQI ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ 15/69( و ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي RCP4.5 ،RCP8.5 و RCP2.6 ﻣﻘﺪار ﺷﺎﺧﺺ WQI ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 11/17؛ 12/23 و 12/45 ﺷﺪه و ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب ﺑﻪ ﺧﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزﻣﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺤﺚ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ارس و ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي از ورود آﻻﯾﻨﺪه ﻫﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
چكيده لاتين :
Rivers have always been considered by human societies as one of the main sources of drinking water and agriculture during human life and have been very effective in the formation of human civilizations. Aras River is a border river that is one of the most important sources of drinking water in many surrounding towns and villages. The aim of this study is to evaluate the water quality of Aras River at present and predict it for the future period under RCP release scenarios. In this study, monthly data of discharge, precipitation, TDS, SO4, EC, BOD, Do, COD, No3, and Po4 during the statistical period of 1995-2018 were analyzed using WQI water quality index. Also, changes in precipitation and temperature were predicted under RCP release scenarios. To investigate the impact of climate change on river water quality, regression relationships were established between rainfall, discharge and water quality parameters and according to the forecast for rainfall and discharge in the period 2017-2036, water quality conditions with WQI index for scenarios. RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 were calculated. In addition, the effect of changes in climate parameters on the quality parameters of phosphate and nitrate was estimated using the SWAT model for the future. The results of statistical studies showed that the amount of nitrate, phosphate and COD parameters in all three scenarios will be increasing. Also, the simulation results of phosphate and nitrate parameters using SWAT model have predicted incremental conditions for all three scenarios. The results of the effect of climate change on water quality using the WQI index showed that water quality is in poor condition at baseline (WQI index is 15.69) and under the influence of climate change based on scenarios of RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 WQI value 11.17, respectively; 12.23 and 12.45 and water quality will change to very bad, which requires attention to the quality of the Aras River and the prevention of pollutants.
