اثر تغييرات بهره‌وري بخش‌هاي اقتصادي بر مصرف انرژي تجديدپذير و تجديدناپذير، انرژي گرمايي، رشد و توسعه اقتصادي

The Effect of Changes in the Productivity of Economic Sectors on the Consumption of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy, Thermal Energy, Economic Growth and Development

ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺑﻬﺮه وري ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺮ ﻣﺼﺮف اﻧﺮژي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ و ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ، اﻧﺮژي ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﯽ، رﺷﺪ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺑﺮآورد ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﻪ روش ﺗﺎﻧﮓ و ﭘﻨﮓ )2018( در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮏ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﺳﺎزي )ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ( اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻧﻪ ﮔﺎﻧﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﻞ و ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﻬﺮه وري آﻧﻬﺎ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1353 - 1393 ﺑﯿﻦ 3/175 ﺗﺎ 4/59 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل اﺳﺖ؛ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ، ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺷﺮوع ﺑﻬﺮه وري ﮐﺮان ﭘﺎﺋﯿﻦ ﺑﻬﺮه وري ﺑﺎزه ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮدي 3/175 ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ ﮔﯿﺮد. ﻫﻢ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ، در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد، ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و ﻣﻌﺪن، ﺑﺮق )ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎه ﻫﺎ( و ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﺣﺘﯽ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ 30 درﺻﺪي ﮐﺮان ﭘﺎﺋﯿﻦ ﺑﻬﺮه وري ﮐﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد در ﺑﺎزه ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮدي )3/175( ﻗﺮار ﻧﺪارﻧﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ، ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰان، ﻣﺪﯾﺮان و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺬاران اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺗﮑﻨﻮﻟﻮژي ﺑﻬﺮه وري ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و ﻣﻌﺪن، ﻧﯿﺮوﮔﺎه و ﺑﺨﺶ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن را ﺑﯿﺶ از 30 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻫﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﻣﻘﺪار رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﯾﺪ.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of productivity changes in economic sectors on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, heat energy, economic growth and development using estimation of production functions by Tong and Peng method (2018) in the framework of scenario making technique (including three scenarios). The results showed that the nine sectors of the total economy and their productivity in the period 1353 - 1393 is between 3.175 to 4.59 million Rials; Therefore, the starting point of productivity is the lower limit of productivity of the performance range of 3.175. Also, in the sectors of economy, industry and mining, electricity (power plants) and construction, even with a 30% increase in the lower limit, the productivity of the whole economy is not in the operating range (3.175). Based on the results, it is suggested that planners, managers and economic policy makers increase the productivity of the industry and mining, power plant and construction sectors by more than 30% by changing the technology in order to achieve the appropriate amount of economic growth.