ارزيابي كيفيت آبهاي سطحي با رويكرد مدل سازي خطي تغييرات محيطي در بلندمدت (نمونه مطالعاتي حوزه آبخيز سد اميركبير كرج)

Surface Water Quality Assessment Using Linear Modeling Approach to Long-Term Environmental Changes (Case Study of Amirkabir-Karaj Dam Basin)

اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋه رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ و ﺳﺪ ﮐﺮج در ﺑﺮﻗﺮاري اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب ﺷﻬﺮ ﺗﻬﺮان و ﺣﻔﻆ ﭘﺎﯾﺪاري اﮐﻮﻟﻮژﯾـﮏ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴـﺖ آﺑـﯽ و ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫـﺎي اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ واﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ آب ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﺮﺟﺴﺘﻪ و ﺣﯿﺎﺗﯽ را اﯾﻔﺎء ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. ﻫﺪف ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ اﺧﯿﺮ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آﻻﯾﻨﺪهﻫﺎ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺳﻄﺤﯽ ﺑﺮاي 8 ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب )ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﺳﻮﻟﻔﺎت، ﮐﻠﺮ، ﮐﻠﺴﯿﻢ، ﻣﻨﯿﺰﯾﻢ، ﺳﺪﯾﻢ، ﭘﺘﺎﺳﯿﻢ، ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﮐﻞ اﻣﻼح، ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ ﻫﺪاﯾﺖ اﻟﮑﺘﺮﯾﮑـﯽ و ﻧﺴـﺒﺖ ﺟـﺬب ﺳـﺪﯾﻢ( در 10 زﯾﺮﺣﻮﺿﻪ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﮐﺮج- ﺳﺪ اﻣﯿﺮﮐﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﻮد. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ اﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﻫﯿﺪروﻟﻮژي ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آﻻﯾﻨﺪه و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﺸـﺄﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﮑـﺎﻧﯽ اﯾـﻦ آﻻﯾﻨﺪهﻫﺎ و ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت آﺑﺨﯿﺰداري در ﻃﻮل دوره 40 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ از 1347 ﺗﺎ 1398 ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞﻫﺎي ﻫﻤﺒﺴـﺘﮕﯽ ﮐﺎﻧﻮﯾـﮏ و آﻧـﺎﻟﯿﺰ ﻣﻮﻟﻔـﻪﻫﺎي اﺻﻠﯽ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﺎرﺑﺮد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﯽ در ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب ﺳـﻄﺤﯽ از ﻣـﻮارد ﻣﻬـﻢ ﺟﻬـﺖ ﻣﻨﺸـﺄﯾﺎﺑﯽ و ﺣـﺬف ﻧﻮﯾﺰﻫﺎي اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﺎﻧﻮﻧﯽ 1و 2 ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ 0/98 و 0/81 داراي ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮه ﺑﺨﺼـﻮص ﺑـﺮاي ﺗﻐﯿﯿـﺮات ﻣﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮﻫـﺎي ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ )H( و ﺣﺠﻢ رﺳﻮﺑﺎت ﺳﺎﻟﯿﺎﻧﻪ )W( ﺳﺒﺐ اﺛﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻪ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ آب ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﮐﻠﺴﯿﻢ، ﻣﺠﻤـﻮع ﮐـﻞ اﻣـﻼح و ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﮐﻞ ﻫﯿﺪروژن دارﻧﺪ و راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﺑﺮﻗﺮار ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﻨﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺑﺎر آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ ورودي از ﺷﺎﺧﻪﻫﺎي ﻓﺮﻋﯽ رودﺧﺎﻧﮥ ﮐﺮج ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﮐﺎرﺑﺮيﻫﺎي واﻗﻊ در آنﻫﺎ در آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ ﻣﺨﺰن ﺳﺪ ﺑﯿﺶ از ﺷﺎﺧﮥ اﺻﻠﯽ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ و ﮐﺎرﺑﺮيﻫﺎي ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ آن اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻮﯾﮋه زﯾﺮﺣﻮﺿﻪﻫﺎي وﻻﯾﺖرود، ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻧﮏ و ﺳﯿﺮا در ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﺑﯿﺶ از ﯾﮏ ﺳﻮم از ﺳﻬﻢ ﺑﺎر آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ ورودي ﺑﻪ ﻣﺨﺰن را دارﻧﺪ.

The special importance of the Karaj River and Dam in the establishment of sustainable security of water supply in Tehran and maintaining the ecological stability of the aquatic environment and human activities related to water play a prominent and vital role. The aim of this study was to identify sources of pollutants. Quality of surface water resources for 8 water quality parameters (sulfate, chlorine, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, total solute, electrical conductivity and sodium uptake ratio) in 10 Karaj-Amir dam dams It was great. In this study, the effect of changes in hydrological parameters on pollutant sources as well as the spatial origin of these pollutants and the appropriateness of watershed management measures during the 40-year period from 1347 to 1398 were investigated using Convik correlation analysis and principal component analysis. The results showed that the application of factor analysis in evaluating surface water quality parameters is one of the important cases for source and elimination of information noise. Focal variables 1 and 2 with correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.81 have potential ability especially for changes in environmental variables such as rainfall (H) and The volume of annual sediments (W) has a direct effect on the three elements of water quality, namely calcium, total salts and total hydrogen ratio, respectively, and they establish a direct relationship. The results showed that the share of incoming pollution load from the tributaries of the Karaj River due to the uses located in them in the pollution of the dam reservoir is more than the main tributary of the river and its uses. In particular, the sub-basins of Velayatrud, Shahrestanak and Sira have a total of more than one third of the share of pollution entering the reservoir.