بررسي روند خصوصي سازي شركت هاي دولتي پس از انقلاب اسلامي بمنظور ارايه الگوي بهينه با رويكرد اختيار معامله حقيقي

Investigating the privatization process of Government-owned Companies after the Islamic Revolution In order to provide an optimal model with a real options approach

پژوهش حاضر به بهينه سازي روند خصوصي سازي در سال‌هاي پس از انقلاب اسلامي ايران با توجه به نوع اختيارمعامله حقيقي پرداخته است. در سال هاي اخير، خصوصي‌سازي در ايران به نتيجه مطلوبي نرسيده است. با توجه به تاثير خصوصي سازي بر عملكرد مالي شركت‌هاي دولتي قبل و بعد از واگذاري آنچه مشخص است اين است كه درآمد سهم شركت‌ها و بازده دارايي‌ها و بازده سرمايه شركت‌ها پس از خصوصي سازي تغييري نكرده و در مجموع پس از خصوصي سازي عملكرد آنها تغيير مطلوبي نكرده است. در اين تحقيق روش مطالعه بصورت كيفي انجام شد. بدين صورت كه با مصاحبه با خبرگان مالي و مديران اجرايي شركت‌هاي دولتي، مصاحبه هايي انجام گرفت و نتايج مصاحبه ها با استفاده از نرم افزار (MAXQDA2020) مورد تحليل و بررسي قرار گرفت. يافته‌هاي تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد كه با توجه به پويايي شرايط حاكم بر فعاليت‌هاي اقتصادي و مالي و به تبع آن افزايش ريسك تصميم‌گيري در زمينه هاي سرمايه گذاري ، نيازمند روش‌هاي ارزشگذاري پيشرفته‌تر هستيم كه بتوانيم اطلاعات بيشتري نسبت به روش‌هاي سنتي ارايه كنيم و روش اختيار واقعي روش مكملي در كنار ارزشگذاري سنتي است .

The present study optimizes the privatization process in the years after the Islamic Revolution of Iran according to the type of real options. In recent years, privatization in Iran has not achieved the desired result. Considering the effect of privatization on the financial performance of Government-owned Companies before and after privatization, what is clear is that the share income of companies and the return on assets and capital of companies have not changed after privatization and in general the performance of companies has not changed after privatization. In this research, the study method was performed qualitatively. In this way, by interviewing financial experts and executives of Government-owned Companies, interviews were conducted and the results of the interviews were analyzed using MAXQDA 2020 software and coding was done. The most important findings of the research show that due to the dynamics of the conditions governing economic and financial activities and consequently increasing the risk of decision-making in the field of investment, we need more advanced valuation methods that can provide more information than traditional methods. Therefore, the method of real options was used as a complementary method along with traditional valuation. Types of real options used in Government-owned Companies, including expansion or abandonment of the project, and large project managers cannot easily exercise the authority to abandon or expand due to uncertainty. Therefore, the most important components influencing the choice of real options are the value of the company, uncertainty (return fluctuations) and investment costs and denoted price. The results show that the use of the above method shows valuable information from different dimensions of risk and its effect on the financial justification of many strategic decisions of firms at any given time. The results of evaluating the traditional method with the real options method indicate that the net value obtained from the real options approach is higher than the traditional method.