كليدواژه :
تاب آوري , تاب آوري اجتماعي , حكمروايي شايسته , رويكرد اكتشافي , شهر اردبيل
چكيده فارسي :
تاب آوري اجتماعي ظرفيت جذب و مقابله با اختلال و آشفتگي هاي سيستم ناشي از بروز بحران هاست. در اين راستا آگاهي از اثرات بحران ها بر تاب آوري اجتماعي در چهارچوب حكم روايي شايسته شهري نيازمند ارايه تحليلي ساختاري از آن در آينده است تا به وسيله آن بتوان ظرفيت تاب آوري اجتماعي شهري را افزايش داد. هدف پژوهش حاضر تحليل ساختاري تاب آوري اجتماعي شهري در چهارچوب حكم روايي شايسته شهري با رويكرد آينده پژوهي است. پژوهش حاضر كاربردي و به لحاظ روش انجام، توصيفي تحليلي است كه در راستاي مباني علم آينده پژوهي با رويكرد اكتشافي (ديده باني گذشته و حال، براي شناخت آينده) و تحليلي به وضعيت تاب آوري اجتماعي در چهارچوب حكم روايي شايسته شهري در شهر اردبيل پرداخته است. در اين راستا نيز، گردآوري داده ها در بخش نظري به روش اسنادي و در بخش عملي نيز به صورت پيمايشي، مبتني بر تكنيك دلفي بوده است. از نرم افزار ميك مك و سناريو ويزارد براي تجزيه و تحليل داده ها استفاده شده است. خروجي هاي نرم افزار ميك مك تقريبا ناپايداري سيستم را نشان مي دهد. در اين مطالعه 12 عامل كليدي شناسايي شد كه باتوجه به شباهت بعضي عوامل به 11 عامل ادغام شد. تعداد 31 وضعيت احتمالي براي عوامل كليدي در نظر گرفته شد و نرم افزار سناريو ويزارد، 10000 سناريو ارايه داد كه از اين تعداد 1294 مورد آن داراي اعتبار و 2 سناريو با سازگاري بالا ارايه شد. با توجه به نتايج به دست آمده كه تا حدودي ناپايداري سيستم را نشان مي دهد، بهتر است اقدامات اوليه در راستاي رفع وضعيت هاي بحراني باشد تا سيستم به سمت پايداري حركت كند و عوامل تاثيرگذار در سناريوي اول روند تاثيرگذاري مثبت خود را داشته باشند. تسهيل مداخله شهروندان، افزايش تعداد سازمان هاي مردم نهاد شهري و تشكيل سازمان هاي داوطلب جزو بالاترين ارزش سازگاري مربوط به عوامل كليدي در آينده تاب آوري اجتماعي شهر اردبيل هستند.
چكيده لاتين :
Social resilience is one of the most important tools in the context of decent urban governance to reduce tensions and the negative consequences of various crises. In order to make Ardabil resilient, we need to deepen our understanding of the current situation and move towards more sustainable solutions that can provide a good starting point. Linking a decent governance approach with social resilience helps to prevent spatial, social, economic and other vulnerabilities in cities and to increase capacity to deal with slow and sudden changes. Looking to the future can be important and necessary in order to recognize the appropriate drivers and scenarios to increase the social resilience of Ardabil city.
Research
Methods
The present research is applied and descriptive-analytical in terms of method, which is in line with the basics of futuristic science with an exploratory and an analysis of the state of social resilience in Ardabil city. In this regard, the collection of data in the theoretical part by documentary method and in the practical part by survey, were based on Delphi technique. Mick Mac software and Wizard scenario have been used to analyze the data.
Analysis and Research Findings
In the present study, considering that the goal is to identify the most important determinants and influential factors in increasing the social resilience of Ardabil city within the framework of proper urban governance, effective variables (because they are the most influential indicators), risk variables (because high capacity to become key system factors) and regulatory variables (which have the potential to become risk variables and secondary targets) are used as the most important determinants, for a total of 12 key factors. Of these 12 factors, two variables of "participation of civil society and the private sector in planning" and "participation of civil, social and cultural institutions in policy making and resource planning" are merged, due to the thematic similarity, in a variable called "participation of public institutions and the private sector in planning, resource planning, and policy making”. Finally, 11 key factors were identified that after identifying the most important factors, different situations (possible situations related to key factors) for each of the different situations were considered about improving social resilience in Ardabil within the framework of proper urban governance. The number of these situations is designed to fit the circumstances of each factor. In fact, these situations related to each of the factors can be considered as drivers and strategies to improve the social resilience of Ardabil city and are likely to occur. Finally, 31 possible situations for the future of social resilience in Ardabil were considered within the framework of proper governance, of which 17 were possible favorable conditions; 6 were possible static states and 8 were possible critical states.
Conclusions
Given the output of MicMac software, which shows the extent of the systemchr('39')s instability, it is best to take steps to resolve critical situations so that the system moves towards stability and the factors influencing the first scenario have a positive impact. Facilitating the intervention of citizens, increasing the number of urban NGOs and forming volunteer organizations are among the highest values of compatibility related to key factors in the future of social resilience in Ardabil.
