برآورد ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮ ﺷﺪت زﻟﺰﻟﻪ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﮥ ﮔﺴﻞ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از داده ﻫﺎي ﺣﺮارﺗﯽ ﺳﻨﺠﺶ از دور

Earthquake severity parameter estimation in fault regions using remote sensing thermal data

زﻟﺰﻟﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ و ﺧﻄﺮﻧﺎك ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﻫﺎي ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻫﺮﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺧﺴﺎرات ﻣﺎﻟﯽ و ﺟﺎﻧﯽ ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ را ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد. ﻫﻨﮕﺎم وﻗﻮع زﻟﺰﻟﻪ ﺗﻨﺶ ﻫﺎ و ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﺪودة ﮔﺴﻞ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ و ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات دﻣﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺳﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دﻣﺎي ﻧﺮﻣﺎل ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد. اﯾﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات دﻣﺎﯾﯽ ﺧﻮد را ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﺑﯽ ﻫﻨﺠﺎري ﻫﺎﯾﯽ در ﻣﮑﺎن ﯾﺎ زﻣﺎن ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﻨﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﺣﺮارﺗﯽ ﺳﻨﺠﻨﺪة ﻣﺎدﯾﺲ و ﺷﯿﭗ ﻓﺎﯾﻞ ﮔﺴﻞ ﻫﺎي اﯾﺮان، ﻫﻔﺖ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺪت ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از ﺷﺶ رﯾﺸﺘﺮ، ﮐﻪ در اﯾﺮان رخ داده، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮ زﻣﺎن- دﻣﺎ- ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ در ﮔﺴﻞ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ورودي دو روش ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ ﺑﯽ ﻫﻨﺠﺎري ﺣﺮارﺗﯽ روي داده ﻫﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ روش ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ ﺑﯽ ﻫﻨﺠﺎري ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮ ﺷﺪت ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺷﺒﮑﮥ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺑﺮآورد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﻟﮕﻮرﯾﺘﻢ ﻫﺎي ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ ﻧﺎﻫﻨﺠﺎري ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﻫﺮﭼﻨﺪ ﻫﺮ دو روش ﺗﺸﺨﯿﺺ ﺑﯽ ﻫﻨﺠﺎري ﺣﺮارﺗﯽ ﺑﯽ ﻫﻨﺠﺎري ﺣﺮارﺗﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ را در روز زﻟﺰﻟﻪ در ﺷﻌﺎع ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﮔﺴﻞ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﺮده اﻧﺪ روش ﭼﺎرﮐﯽ )Interquartile( ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ روش ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ- اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺗﺮي را ﺑﺮاي ورودي اﻟﮕﻮرﯾﺘﻢ ﺷﺒﮑﮥ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ در ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮ ﺷﺪت زﻟﺰﻟﻪ، ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺷﺒﮑﮥ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ، دﻗﺖ ﮐﻠﯽ 0/73 را داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ذﮐﺮ اﯾﻦ ﻧﮑﺘﻪ ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﭘﯿﺶ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات دﻣﺎي ﺳﻄﺢ و ﺑﯽ ﻫﻨﺠﺎري ﻫﺎي ﺣﺮارﺗﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎﯾﯽ ﻧﻤﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي زﻟﺰﻟﻪ ﮐﺎﻓﯽ و دﻗﺖ ﻻزم را ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ زﻟﺰﻟﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. وﻟﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ داده ﻫﺎي ﺣﺮارﺗﯽ و ﺳﺎدﮔﯽ ﮐﺎر ﺑﺎ آن ﻫﺎ، ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد از آن ﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻫﺎي اﺑﺘﺪاﯾﯽ و آﻏﺎزﯾﻦ زﻣﯿﻦ ﻟﺮزه اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﻮد و در ﺻﻮرت ﺗﺄﯾﯿﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﯽ آن ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ، از روش ﻫﺎ و ﭘﯿﺶ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﮕﺮﻫﺎي دﯾﮕﺮ، ﮐﻪ درﻫﺎ اﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﮕﻮرﯾﺘﻢ ﻫﺎ و ﭘﺮدازش ﻫﺎي ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ و ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه ﻧﯿﺎز اﺳﺖ، اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﻮد.

An earthquake is the movement of the surface of the Earth resulting from a sudden release of energy in the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes are one of the most unpredictable and dangerous natural phenomena that cause many financial and human losses every year. Due to the great importance of this natural crisis, several studies have been conducted to investigate this phenomenon. Many of these studies show that the earthquakes phenomenon is highly related to the deformation of the earth, rising ground temperatures, gases and aerosols, and electromagnetic disturbances in the atmosphere. The land surface temperature is highly dependent on the interactions of the earth's surface layers. When an earthquake occurs, stresses and activities in the fault range increase, causing significant temperature changes compared to normal temperatures. These temperature changes manifest themselves as anomalies in place or time. Regarding the materials and methods, in this research, using MODIS thermal products and shapefile of Iran’s faults, seven earthquakes with the intensity of more than 6 Ms have been investigated. First the preprocessing was performed on LST data so that thermal noise signals caused by seasonal changes be removed from the original data. This was done by using a linear model made from the previous year data which no seismic activities were reported during its 40 days of investigation. Then, using the formation of a three-dimensional picture of time-temperature-distance in the earthquake-related fault as input, two methods for detecting thermal anomalies have been investigated on the data. The mean standard deviation method, which is a threshold method using two parameters, and the interquartile method, which is similar to the previous method but uses different statistical parameters as input, are the two algorithms used in this research. Finally, using the results of the best method for detecting anomalies, severity parameter of each earthquake is estimated using artificial neural networks. Regarding the results and discussion, it should be noted that the results of anomaly detection algorithms show that both methods of thermal anomaly detection have detected thermal anomalies related to each earthquake on the day of the earthquake in a radius closest to the fault. In some cases like fahraj earthquake some anomalies were detected aside the anomaly detected on the day of the earthquake. However, results of the mean-standard deviation method gives more false alarms as an earthquake thermal anomaly than the interquartile method. Although these anomalies could be related to the earthquake it cannot be a certain fact. So in order to have a better outcome we use the results of interquartile anomaly detection method as input for training of artificial neural network. The results in mathematical modeling have a relatively high accuracy in the case of seismic intensity parameter using artificial neural network with the total accuracy of 0.73. These results indicate that the best accuracy belongs to Azgalah and the one with least accuracy belongs to fahraj study case. Although the number of earthquakes studied for neural network training has been relatively small, but the availability of large amounts of data on each earthquake has provided appropriate accuracy. In conclusion, this study shows that thermal anomalies is one of the most significant precursors for earthquake’s investigations. Using the relevant fault and anomalies with respect to the buffer zones in different distances can help us increase the accuracy dramatically. Since many previous studies that investigated thermal anomalies connected to the earthquakes, explored areas around the epicenter, in this study we show that the corresponding fault is just as important as epicenter. Finally, it should be noted that the indicator of surface temperature changes and thermal anomalies alone cannot be sufficient to fully investigate the parameters of the earthquake or have the necessary accuracy to analyze the earthquake. However, due to the low volume of thermal data and the simplicity of working with them, it is recommended that they be used for initial earthquake surveys, and if it is partially confirmed for further analysis, use other methods and indicators that require the application of heavy and complex algorithms and processes. It is also possible to combine the results of this precursor with the results of other precursors to achieve sufficient accuracy. Regarding the results and discussion, it should be noted that the results of anomaly detection algorithms show that both methods of thermal anomaly detection have detected thermal anomalies related to each earthquake on the day of the earthquake in a radius closest to the fault. In some cases like fahraj earthquake some anomalies were detected aside the anomaly detected on the day of the earthquake. However, results of the mean-standard deviation method gives more false alarms as an earthquake thermal anomaly than the interquartile method. Although these anomalies could be related to the earthquake it cannot be a certain fact. So in order to have a better outcome we use the results of interquartile anomaly detection method as input for training of artificial neural network. The results in mathematical modeling have a relatively high accuracy in the case of seismic intensity parameter using artificial neural network with the total accuracy of 0.73. These results indicate that the best accuracy belongs to Azgalah and the one with least accuracy belongs to fahraj study case. Although the number of earthquakes studied for neural network training has been relatively small, but the availability of large amounts of data on each earthquake has provided appropriate accuracy. In conclusion, this study shows that thermal anomalies is one of the most significant precursors for earthquake’s investigations. Using the relevant fault and anomalies with respect to the buffer zones in different distances can help us increase the accuracy dramatically. Since many previous studies that investigated thermal anomalies connected to the earthquakes, explored areas around the epicenter, in this study we show that the corresponding fault is just as important as epicenter. Finally, it should be noted that the indicator of surface temperature changes and thermal anomalies alone cannot be sufficient to fully investigate the parameters of the earthquake or have the necessary accuracy to analyze the earthquake. However, due to the low volume of thermal data and the simplicity of working with them, it is recommended that they be used for initial earthquake surveys, and if it is partially confirmed for further analysis, use other methods and indicators that require the application of heavy and complex algorithms and processes. It is also possible to combine the results of this precursor with the results of other precursors to achieve sufficient accuracy.