تعديل وضع هوا، راهكاري جهت سازگاري با تغييرات اقليمي (مطالعه موردي استان تهران)

Weather modification, solving way to climate change adaptation

ﯾﮑﯽ از راهﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳـﻌﻪي ﮐﺸـﻮرﻫﺎ و ﺣﺮﮐﺖ آنﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳـﻮي ﺗﻤﺪن و رﻓﺎه ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ، اﺳـﺘﻔﺎدهي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ و ﮐﺎرا از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ اﺳـﺖ. از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺑﺴـ ﯿﺎر ﻣﻬﻢ و ﺣﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ در زﻧﺪﮔ ﯽ روزﻣﺮهي اﻧﺴـﺎن و ﮐﺸـﻮرﻫﺎ و ﺗﺪاوم ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪات ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﯽ دارد، ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب اﺳـﺖ. رﺷـﺪ روز اﻓﺰون ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ، ﭘﯿﺸـﺮﻓﺖ ﺳـﺮﯾﻊ ﻓﻦآوري در زﻣﯿﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﺻـﻨﻌﺘﯽ، ﮐﺸـﺎورزي، اﻗﺘﺼـﺎدي و در ﭘﯽ آن اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳـﻄﺢ ﺑﻬﺪاﺷـﺖ و رﻓﺎه ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ، ﺑﺎﻋﺚ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ آب ﺷـﺪه اﺳـﺖ. از ﺳـﻮي دﯾﮕﺮ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ و اﺛﺮات ﻧﺎ ﺑﻪﻫﻨﺠﺎر ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ، ﻧﻈﻢ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﺸـﻮرﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ وﯾﮋه ﮐﺸـﻮر ﻣﺎ را ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﺮار داده اﺳــﺖ. ﺟﻬﺖ ﺳــﺎزﮔﺎري ﺑﺎ اﺛﺮات ﺳــﻮء ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ راهﮐﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻌﺪدي وﺟﻮد دارد ﮐﻪ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ وﺿــﻊ ﻫﻮا ﯾﮑﯽ از راهﻫﺎي ﻋﻠﻤﯽ، اﺛﺒﺎت ﺷـﺪه و ﭘﯿﺸـﻨﻬﺎد ﺷـﺪه از ﺳـﻮي ﺳـﺎزﻣﺎن ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ ﻫﻮاﺷـﻨﺎﺳـ ﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷـﺪ. ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﺮرﺳـ ﯽ اﺛﺮ اﺟﺮاي ﭘﺮوژهي ﺑﺎروري اﺑﺮﻫﺎ در ﺳـﺎل آﺑﯽ 93-94در اﺳـﺘﺎن ﺗﻬﺮان ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺳـﻄﺤﯽ و زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺳـﺎزﮔﺎري ﺑﺎ اﺛﺮات ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷـﺪ. ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﭼﻨﺪﯾﻦ ﮔﺎم اﺳـﺎﺳـ ﯽ ﺑﺮاي رﺳـ ﯿﺪن ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪف ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺮداﺷـﺘﻪ ﺷـﺪه اﺳـﺖ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﺨﺴـﺖ، ﺑﻪ آﻣﺎدهﺳـﺎزي دادهﻫﺎ و اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﻮردﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ اﺛﺮات ﺑﺎرورﺳــﺎزي اﺑﺮ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷــﺪ. در ﺑﺨﺶ دوم، ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﺑﺎروري اﺑﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ روش رﮔﺮﺳـ ﯿﻮﻧﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷـﺪ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﺳـﻮم ﻣﺪلﺳـﺎزي ﺑﯿﻼن ﻫﯿﺪروﮐﻠﯿﻤﺎﺗﻮﻟﻮژي ﺑﻪ دو روش ﺟﺰﯾﻢ و راﺋﻮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺮرﺳـ ﯽ اﺛﺮﺑﺨﺸـ ﯽ اﺛﺮات ﺑﺎروري اﺑﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺳـﻄﺤﯽ و زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺻـﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. در ﺑﺨﺶ اﻧﺘﻬﺎﯾﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ رواﻧﺎب و ﺗﻐﺬﯾﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻧﺎﺷـ ﯽ از ﺑﺎروري اﺑﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﺮآورد ﺷـﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﮔﺴـﺘﺮده ﻧﺸـﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎروري اﺑﺮﻫﺎ ﺗﻮاﻧﺴﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ51/2 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﺑﻪ روش اﺳـﺘﺪﻻﻟﯽ و 63/9 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ رواﻧﺎب ﺑﻪ روش SCSﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺳـﻄﺤﯽ و 40/5ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ در ﺳﺎل آﺑﯽ 93-94 اﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ

One of way to improving countries is using optimum and useful of natural resources. Among vital and important of natural resources are water resources. Increasing growth of population, industrial developing, economical and also public healthy and comfortable level, have caused to increasing water supply. On the other hand, global warming and abnormal climate change impact have effected on natural harmony of climate in countries, especially in Iran. There are many ways to climate change adaptation and mitigation, that international weather organization have suggest applying of approval and scientific method that it is weather modification. Aim of this research is assessment of cloud seeding effective to surface and ground water resources to climate change adaptation and mitigation in Tehran province in 2015. For this purpose, we were using several steps to achieve goals. At the first, we were prepared needed data and information. In the second step, cloud seeding operation had evaluated with provided data and local regression method. After that to determination of cloud seeding impact on surface and ground water was used to hydro climatic budget modeling. In fourth step, runoff and ground water discharge affected by cloud seeding operation was estimated. Result show that cloud seeding operation could increase runoff 63.9 million cubic meters (with SCS equation) or 51.2 million cubic meters (with logical equation) and 40.5 million cubic meters was increased to ground water resources in Tehran in 2015.