بررسي اثرات تغيير اقليم بر تبخير و تعرق واقعي در دورههاي آتي به كمك تكنيك سنجش از دور و الگوريتم توازن انرژي سبال

Impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration in future periods using remote sensing techniques and SEBAL energy balance algorithms (Case study: Plain Tuyserkan Hamedan)

ﭼﮑﯿﺪه ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ و ﺗﻌﺮق از ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪر رﻓﺖ آب در ﺣﻮزهﻫﺎي آبﺧﯿﺰ ﺑﻮده و ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ اﺑﻌﺎد ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ آن در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺿﺮوري ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. از ﻃﺮف دﯾﮕﺮ آﮔﺎﻫﯽ از ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ و ﺗﻌﺮق واﻗﻌﯽ دﺷﺖﻫﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ اﻟﮕﻮي ﮐﺸﺖ و ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰيﻫﺎي آﺑﯿﺎري ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﺎﻏﯽ و زراﻋﯽ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﺛﺮات ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ اﺑﻌﺎد زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺣﻮزهﻫﺎي آبﺧﯿﺰ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﯾﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺑﺮ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ و ﺗﻌﺮق واﻗﻌﯽ ﺣﻮزهﻫﺎي آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﺳﺎﺳﯽ در ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﯿﻼن آب و ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ آﺑﯿﺎري ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰيﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ ﺿﺮوري ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﻫﺪف از ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮات ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ و ﺗﻌﺮق واﻗﻌﯽ ﺣﻮزه آبﺧﯿﺰ ﺗﻮﯾﺴﺮﮐﺎن در ﻏﺮب ﮐﺸﻮر ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر از ﺗﺼﺎوﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﻮارهاي ﻣﻮدﯾﺲ و اﻟﮕﻮرﯾﺘﻢ ﺳﺒﺎل ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ و ﺗﻌﺮق واﻗﻌﯽ 10ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﻮزه آبﺧﯿﺰ ﺗﻮﯾﺴﺮﮐﺎن اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮات ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ 15ﻣﺪل ﮔﺮدش ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﺟﻮ و ﺗﺤﺖ دو ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي A1Bو B1در ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار LARS-WGﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع 80% در دورهﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ دﻣﺎي ﮐﻤﯿﻨﻪ از % 13ﺗﺎ 20% و دﻣﺎي ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪ از 4/2ﺗﺎ 4/6درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ و ﺗﻌﺮق واﻗﻌﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﻪ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻗﻮع 80% در دورهﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ از 0/04ﺗﺎ 1/4% اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ.

Evapotranspiration is the main source of water loss in basin and so knowledge of various aspects of water resources management is essential. Type text or a website address or translate a document. On the other hand, knowledge of the actual evapotranspiration plains is important to determine and manage crop pattern and irrigation of horticultural and agricultural. Due to the effects of climate change on all environmental aspects of watersheds, Check these changes on actual evapotranspiration of catchment is essential as a key factor in determining the water balance and water management planning for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. The aim of the present study is investigation of climate change effective on actual evapotranspiration in Tuyserkan Basin in west of Iran. For this aim MODIS satellite images and SEBAL algorithms was used to estimating of actual evapotranspiration in Tuyserkan basin for 10 years old. Impact of climate change was analyses through 15 atmospheric general circulation model and under two scenarios A1B and B1 in Software LARS-WG. The results showed that the probability of 80% in future periods, minimum temperature from 13 to 20% and maximum temperature from 2.4 to 6.4 percent has increase. Actual evapotranspiration is the probability of 80% in future periods will increase from 0.4 to 1.4%.