ارزيابي سطح تحقق پذيري طرح هاي احداث صنايع تبديلي و تكميلي كشاورزي استان مازندران با استفاده از الگوي پروبيت ترتيبي

Predicting the Level of Realization of Agricultural Conversion and Complementary Construction industry Projects Using ordered Probit Model

ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاران ﮐﻤﮏ ﺷﺎﯾﺎﻧﯽ در ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي دارد. ﯾﮑـﯽ از ﻣـﻮارد ﻣﻬـﻢ در ارزﯾـﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﯿـﺰان ﻣﻮﻓﻘﯿـﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاران، رﺳﯿﺪن آن ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ اﻫﺪاف ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎي ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻠﯽ و ﺗﮑﻤﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ اﻫﺪاف در اﯾـﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌـﻪ از ﻧﺴـﺒﺖ ﻇﺮﻓﯿـﺖ ﭘﯿﺸـﻨﻬﺎدي در ﺟـﻮاز ﺗﺄﺳـﯿﺲ و ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ اﺣﺪاث ﺷﺪه ﺑﺮاي ﺷﺮوع ﮐﺎر ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه اﺳﺖ. اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ از ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧﺪران ﺟﻤﻊآوري و 386 واﺣﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. واﺣﺪﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻪ دﺳﺘﻪ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از ﺣﺪ ﺗﺤﻘﻖﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ، ﮐﺎﻣﻼ ﺗﺤﻘﻖﯾﺎﻓﺘـﻪ و ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از ﺣﺪ ﺗﺤﻘﻖﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ و اﻟﮕﻮي ﭘﺮوﺑﯿﺖ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺒﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﺛﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻧﻮع ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ، ﻣﮑﺎن اﺳﺘﻘﺮار، اﻧﺪازه ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ، ﻃﻮل دوره ﺳﺎﺧﺖ واﺣﺪ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﺤﻘـﻖ اﺣـﺪاث ﺻـﻨﺎﯾﻊ ﺗﺒـﺪﯾﻠﯽ ﻣـﺆﺛﺮ ﻫﺴـﺘﻨﺪ . ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺰﺑﻮر در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ و ﻧﻮع ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﻟﮕﻮي ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺳـﻄﺢ ﺗﺤﻘـﻖ اﻫـﺪاف ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰيﺷﺪه در اﺣﺪاث واﺣﺪﻫﺎي ﻧﺎﻣﺒﺮده ﺷﺪه را ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﮐﺮد.

The study of the behavior of investors has a significant bearing on development of various economic sectors. One of the important issues in assessing the success of investors is their predicted level of achievement.In this study, the level of realization of agricultural conversion and complementary construction projects in Mazandaran province has been investigated.The level of possibility of the goals achieved is from the proposed capacity ratio in the license to the capacity built to start work.The data was collected from the Jihad Agriculture Organization of Mazandaran province and 386 units were selected as the sample. The units studied in this research were divided into three groups less than realized, fully realized and more than realized. The generalized probit model was used to identify the effective factors on the level of feasibility. The results show that the variables of type of ownership, location, activity size, duration of construction of unit on the level of realization of construction of conversion industries are effective. The effect of these variables varies in different cities and types of activities. Using the present model, we can predict the level of realization of planned goals in the construction of the mentioned units.