چكيده فارسي :
در طول ماه‌هاي اخير قيمت گوشت مرغ افزايش شديدي داشته كه رفاه مصرف‌كنندگان را به‌خطر انداخته است؛ از سوي ديگر افزايش قيمت نهاده‌ها مشكلات بي‌شماري براي توليد‌كنندگان به وجود آورده است. با توجه به مشكلاتي كه در طول زنجيره تأمين اين محصول وجود دارد و با توجه به زياد بودن فعالان و عوامل درگير در اين زنجيره؛ در اين مطالعه روش تفكر سيستمي براي بررسي چالش‌هاي زنجيره تأمين گوشت مرغ به‌كار گرفته شده است. براي اين منظور، روابط ميان فعالان زنجيره در قالب نمودارهاي علت معلولي بيان شده است و در ادامه آركتايپ‌هاي موجود در سيستم شناسايي شده‌اند. نمودار علت معلولي شامل 6 حلقه بازخوردي مثبت و 14 حلقه بازخوردي تعادلي مي‌باشد. آركتايپ‌هاي شناسايي شده نيز شامل فرآيندهاي تعادلي با تأخير، اصلاحات ناموفق، انتقال فشار و بالاگيري مناقشه‌ها مي‌باشند. در نهايت با تحليل و بررسي آركتايپ‌هاي شناسايي شده، پيشنهاد شد كه به جاي تخصيص ارز ارزان‌قيمت به واردات نهاده‌هاي دامي، سرمايه‌گذاري بيش‌تري در فناوري‌هاي نوين براي توليد نهاده‌هاي دامي در داخل كشور صورت گيرد. از سوي ديگر با توجه به اينكه امكان خودكفايي در توليد نهاده‌هاي دامي به‌خصوص توليد ذرت و كنجاله سويا در داخل كشور وجود ندارد؛ پيشنهاد شد كه واردات اين نهاده‌ها با ارز به نرخ بازار آزاد صورت گيرد و براي خريد نهاده‌ها تسهيلات بانكي ارزان قيمت در اختيار توليد‌كنندگان قرار گيرد.
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction
In recent months, the price of chicken meat has risen sharply, endangering the welfare of consumers; On the other hand, rising input prices have created several problems for producers. Given the problems that exist along the supply chain of this product and due to the large number of activities and agents involved in this chain; In this study, a system thinking approach has been used to investigate the challenges of the chicken meat supply chain.
Material and Methods
Two types of complexity, including combinatorial complexity and dynamic complexity can occur in systems such as the supply chain of the agricultural products. Combinatorial complexity is due to the presence of different elements or actors in the system; while dynamic complexity can occur even in the simple systems due to the interactions between agents over time (Sterman, 2000). Van Mai (2010) believes that system thinking is a appropriate approach for analyzing complex systems and identifying leverage points for intervention because it can investigate the interrelationships among several subsystems. Therefore, in this study, it was used system thinking approach to investigate interrelationships among agents of chicken supply chain actors in Iran.
Results and Discussion
In this study, the relationships between chain agents were extracted in the causal loop diagram and then, the system archetypes were identified. The causal loop diagram includes 6 reinforcing loops and 14 balancing loops. Identified archetypes also includes balancing process with delay, fixes that fail, shifting the burden and escalation.
Fixes that fail and shifting the burden archetypes showed that the livestock input import policy has not been helpful to regulate the domestic market. It has only made the system accustomed to supply the needed livestock input through imports and abandoned basic solutions. In addition, the corn and soybean meal import policy has not been effective in decreasing corn price and soybean meal price, because of the lack of monitoring on imported corn and soybean meal distribution.
Suggestions
Finally, by analyzing the identified archetypes, it was suggested that instead of allocating subsidized foreign currency to import livestock inputs, more investment should be made in new technologies for the production of livestock inputs in the country. On the other hand, given that reaching self-sufficiency in livestock input production, especially corn and soybean meal in Iran is not possible; it was suggested that these inputs be imported in free market currency and bank loan at low interest rates be provided to producers to purchase the inputs.
