تأثير موافقتنامه موقت ايران و اتحاديه اقتصادي اوراسيا در توسعه تجارت بين اين كشورها

Impact of The Interim Agreement Between Iran and The Eurasian Economic unio‎n in The Development of Trade Between These Countries

گسترش پديده جهاني‌شدن اقتصاد سبب شد تا رابطه ها و همكاري كشورها در جهت تحصيل سودمنديها در قالب همكاري‌هاي منطقه‌اي در دستور كار بسياري از كشورهاي درحال‌توسعه به‌ويژه كشور ايران قرار گيرد. تعامل با چنين كشورهايي، ايران را در ايجاد زمينه‌هاي لازم براي تجارت با تعرفه ترجيحي و همگرايي اقتصادي ترغيب كرده است. در اين پژوهش تلاش شده با بررسي تجارت (صادرات و واردات) ايران و پنج كشور عضو اتحاديه اقتصادي اوراسيا با يكديگر، در مقايسه با ديگر كشورها و با استفاده از يك مدل كاربردي با عنوان مدل اسمارت، پيامدهاي ايجاد تجارت و انحراف تجارت ناشي از موافقت‌نامه موقت ايران و اتحاديه اقتصادي اوراسيا و كشورهاي عضو با استفاده از اطلاعات دوره زماني 1395 الي 1399 بررسي و تحليل شود. نتايج بدست آمده از پژوهش در زمينه اين موافقت‌نامه نشان مي‌دهد، به‌طور نسبي تجارت بين ايران و پنج كشور اتحاديه اقتصادي اوراسيا طي يك سال پس از اجراي آن، در مقايسه با ميانگين سه سال گذشته بهبوديافته است. نتايج بدست آمده از مدل اسمارت بيانگر افزايش 4/4 درصدي واردات بخش كشاورزي از اتحاديه ياد شده ناشي از كاهش تعرفه خواهد بود كه بخشي از آن ناشي از ايجاد تجارت و بخش ديگر ناشي از انحراف تجارت است. لذا با عنايت به آموزههاي خوب اين موافقت‌نامه پيشنهاد مي‌شود در زمينه آگاهي‌رساني كافي از ظرفيت‌هاي اين موافقت‌نامه به‌تهمهي نهادها وبازرگانان كشور پيش از پيش توجه شده و انگيزه بيشترو تسهيلات لازم براي آنان فراهم شود.

Introduction The spread of the phenomenon of globalization of the economy led to the relations and cooperation of countries in order to study the interests in the form of Regional cooperation should be on the agenda of many developing countries, especially Iran. Under such circumstances, it has encouraged Iran to create the necessary conditions for trade with tariffs and economic convergence.In this research, an attempt has been made to study trade (export and import) of Iran and five member countries of the Eurasian Economic unio‎n with each other, compared to other countries and using an applied model called the Smart model, the effects of trade creation and trade diversion resulting from the interim agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic unio‎n and Review and analyze member countries using period data 2016 to 2020. In this regard, the main question of this research is what has been the impact of the agreement on trade and the fulfillment of the commodity obligations of the parties since its implementation. So, the hypothesis has been tested that the development of Iran's trade with Eurasian Economic unio‎n countries will lead to a reduction in Western sanctions pressure, providing the necessary grounds for Iran’s economic development and foreign trade and benefiting from the economic capacities of the unio‎n. Materials and Methods In this paper, using a partial equilibrium model called Smart Simulation Model, the effects of tariff reduction on Iran's trade flow in agricultural trade with Eurasian Economic unio‎n countries in the form of concepts of trade creation and trade deviation have been investigated. In the next step, the effects of tariffs on agricultural commodity groups at the classification level of coordinated system (HS) have been analyzed. The statistical population of this study includes Eurasian Economic unio‎n and Iran. The total value of bilateral trade (exports and imports) between Iran and the Eurasian Economic unio‎n Between 2016 to 2020 is derived from the Customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran and from 2016 to 2019, Trade map site using Excel software. Iran's tariff statistics are taken from the Export and Import Regulations Book (2016-2020). Conclusion and Discussion Results of Research on this agreement shows, relatively, trade between Iran and the five countries of Eurasian Economic unio‎n has improved in the year since its implementation, compared to the average of the past three years. The results of the Smart model show a 4.4% increase in imports from the agricultural sector from the unio‎n due to tariff reductions, part of which is due to trade creation and part due to trade diversion. Suggestions According to the obtained results, it is recommended that: - Considering the good experiences of this agreement, it is suggested that sufficient awareness of the capacities of this agreement be given to all traders of the country. - This study shows that among Eurasian countries, trade has generally benefited Russia. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously evaluate the trade process between the parties at the same time as the agreement is implemented so that by analyzing the conditions and identifying the possible damages, appropriate policy measures should be taken in order to increase the national interest. - The diversity of Iranian export goods to the Eurasian Economic unio‎n is much less than imported goods. Therefore, it is necessary to create diversification in the country's export goods, especially edible fruits, dried fruits and spices, which have the most effects of trade and trade deviation in the unio‎n for the benefit of Iran. - Statistical analysis of this study indicates that one of the topics emphasized for improving trade balance is enabling the export capacities and potentials of products imported from other countries of the world under the current conditions of the Eurasian Economic unio‎n.