كليدواژه :
مدل جاذبه , محصولات سراميكي و مصنوعات شيشه‌اي , CIS , پتانسيل تجاري , تجارت بين‌الملل
چكيده فارسي :
با توجه به روند رو به رشد تجارت ايران با كشورهاي CIS در كالاهاي محصولات سراميكي و مصنوعات شيشه اي و به‌منظور آگاهي سياست‌گذار از مهم‌ترين عوامل مؤثر بر تجارت ايران با كشورهاي موردبررسي، در اين مقاله سعي شده است با استفاده از داده هاي تلفيقي سال هاي 2019-2009 و بر اساس مدل جاذبه، پتانسيل تجارت ايران با كشورهاي گروه CIS به تفكيك گروه هاي HS68 (محصولات سراميك، شيشه و مصنوعات از شيشه)، HS69 (محصولات سراميكي) و HS70 (شيشه و مصنوعات شيشه اي) بررسي شود. تجزيه‌وتحليل اطلاعات مرتبط با كشورهاي طرف تجاري نشان داد كه بزرگ‌ترين شريك تجاري ايران در گروه كالايي HS68 كشورهاي قزاقستان، آذربايجان و روسيه و در گروه كالايي HS69 و HS70 كشورهاي آذربايجان، ارمنستان، قزاقستان و روسيه مي باشند. نتايج برآورد نشان داد كه قدرت توضيح دهندگي مدل براي هر سه گروه كالايي با استفاده از روش هاي حداقل مربعات معمولي، اثرات ثابت و اثرات تصادفي بالا بوده و متغيرهاي اندازه و ابعاد اقتصادي تأثير مثبت و معني دار و عدم توازن تجاري و مسافت تأثير منفي و معني داري بر جريان تجاري كشورهاي گروه CIS داشته اند.
چكيده لاتين :
1- Introduction
An overview of the main suppliers of important imported goods in the CIS group shows that Iran is one of the main producers of ceramic products and glass products in the growing market of this region due to its comparative advantage and Iranian companies have a large capacity to meet the needs of CIS countries. In this regard, the present article analyzes the factors affecting the trade of ceramic products and glass products by HS codes as described in HS68, HS69 and HS70 in CIS trade partners (which includes the Republic of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan). The data covers the 2009-2019 period, and a panel data model is estimated by using methods of ordinary least squares, fixed effects and random effects.
2- Theoretical Framework
After the end of World War II, international trade grew faster, so that in recent years the world trade has grown largely faster than world production. Meanwhile, the share of developed countries in trade has been growing more than the total trade. Analysis of trade flows between countries showed that the exports with an emphasis on industrial goods is increasing in all countries. As trade growth increased, various models were introduced to explain business flows, the most practical of which was the Gravity model, which is widely used in international trade to explain business flows, to determine business potential, and to examine the effects of integration on Bilateral trade, etc. The gravity model is a simple model for analyzing bilateral business flows between geographic entities. In the 1980s, gravity models showed that economic growth, productivity, human capital, and economic freedom were among the factors influencing trade. They also showed that trade is affected by factors such as conditions in the origin country, economic scale, differences in the stock of factors of production or technology.
3- Methodology
The general form of the gravity model is:
Where Tijt is the trade volume of ceramic products and glass products from country i to country j, yit is the GDP of the exporting country, Yjt is the GDP of the importer country, Zijt denotes variables affecting the flow of trade such as distance between countries (in kilometers), trade imbalances, etc., uijt is a random disturbance term iid (normally and independently distributed). In order to facilitate the estimation, the above model was linearized as follows. represent elasticities. The logarithmic form of the formulated gravity model is:
where Tijt is the trade volume of ceramic products and glass products of country i to country j. yit is the GDP of the exporter country. This variable represents the size of the economy of the exporting countries. yjt is the GDP of the importer country. This variable represents the size of the economy of the importer country. is the degree of trade imbalance between the exporting country and the importing countries:
Where () export (import) of country i to (from) country j at time t. is the distance between the exporter country and the importer country and represents the random disturbance term iid (normally and independently distributed ).
4- Results & Discussion
The model is estimated by conventional least squares method, fixed effects and random effects by commodity groups HS68 (ceramic products, glassware and glass products), HS69 (ceramic products) and HS70 (glassware and glass products), for CIS countries, by using STATA14 software. the estimation results are presented in the following three tables.
