واﮐﺎوي ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺸﺖ ﻧﻘﺶ اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ اﯾﺎﻻت ﻣﺘﺤﺪه ﺑﺎ ﭼﯿﻦ در ﺧﻠﯿﺞ ﻓﺎرس

China's influence in the light of the US security role in the Persian Gulf

ﺑﺮداﺷﺖﻫﺎ در ﺧﺼﻮص ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻞ اﯾﺎﻻت ﻣﺘﺤﺪه ﺑﻪ ﺧﺮوج از ﺧﻠﯿﺞ ﻓﺎرس ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﻫﻤﺮاه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺧﻼء ﻗﺪرت اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از اﯾﻦ روﯾﺪاد را ﻗﺪرتﻫﺎي ﻧﻮﻇﻬﻮري ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﭼﯿﻦ و روﺳﯿﻪ ﭘﺮ ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﮐﺮد؟ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺑﻪدﻧﺒﺎل ﭘﺎﺳﺨﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﺑﺮآﻣﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ »آﯾﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻋﻼﯾﻖ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﭼﯿﻦ در ﺧﻠﯿﺞ ﻓﺎرس ﺑﻪ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ ﻓﻌﺎل از ﺳﻮي ﭘﮑﻦ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ؟ و ﭼﺮا؟« ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ »از آﻧﺠﺎﮐﻪ ورود ﺑﻪ ﭼــﺎﻟﺶﻫــﺎي ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ ﺧﻠﯿﺞ ﻓﺎرس در ﺗﻀﺎد ﺑﺎ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﮑﻦ ﻣﺒﻨﯽ اﺳــﺘﻔﺎده ﺣــﺪاﮐﺜﺮي از ﻇﺮﻓﯿــﺖﻫــﺎي ﺗﺠﺎري در ﺟﻬﺖ ارﺗﻘﺎي اﻫﺪاف راﻫﺒﺮدي ﻣﻠﯽ ﻗﺮار دارد، دﯾﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﯽ اﻗﺘﺼــﺎدي ﭼــﯿﻦ در ﺧﻠــﯿﺞ ﻓﺎرس در ﮐﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت ﯾﺎ ﻣﯿﺎنﻣﺪت ﺑﻪ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ ﻓﻌﺎل اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﻮر در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﻧﺨﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ.« ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ روشﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﯽ ذﯾﻞ ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ راﻫﺒﺮدي ﺑﻪ دﺳــﺖ آﻣــﺪه، ﺿﻤﻦ ﺗﺼﺪﯾﻖ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﻫﻤﺮاه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ارﺗﻘﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﭼﯿﻦ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ و ﺗﻼش اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺮاي ﻧﻔﻮذ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻞ ﺑﻪ راﻫﺒﺮد ﻣﺼﻮنﺳﺎزي ﺑﻪ ﻃــﻮر ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮه ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺪرﯾﺞ و در ﻃﻮﻻﻧﯽﻣﺪت ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺎن ﻫﮋﻣﻮﻧﯽ اﯾﺎﻻت ﻣﺘﺤﺪه در ﺧﻠﯿﺞ ﻓﺎرس ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺷﻮد. اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از ﻧــﻮع ﺗﻮﺻــ ﯿﻔﯽ-ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠــ ﯽ )ﮐﯿﻔــ ﯽ( ﺑــﻮده و در ﻓﺮاﯾﻨــﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿــ ﻞ ﯾﺎﻓﺘــﻪﻫــﺎ از روشﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﯽ ا ﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﮔﺮدآوري اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪاي ﺑﺎ ﺗﮑﯿﻪ ﺑﺮ دادهﻫﺎي ﻋﯿﻨﯽ-ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﺻﻮرت ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ

Perceptions of the US desire to withdraw from the Persian Gulf are accompanied by the question of whether the potential power vacuum created by this event will be filled by emerging powers such as China and Russia. The present article specifically seeks an appropriate answer to the question, "Will China's growing economic interest in the Persian Gulf lead to Beijing's active security policy in the region?" an‎d why? According to the paper, China's economic diplomacy in the Persian Gulf in the short or medium term, as entering into complex Gulf security challenges is at odds with Beijing's policy of maximizing trade capacity to advance national strategic goals. "The period will not lead to the adoption of an active security policy in the region." Findings of the article obtained by the inferential methodology under the theory of strategic coverage, while confirming the hypothesis of the article, is accompanied by the conclusion that the promotion of China's economic interests in the region and its efforts to further influence the region by resorting to safe strategy Reconstruction could potentially lead to the gradual and long-term end of US hegemony in the Persian Gulf. This research is of descriptive-analytical (qualitative) type and in the process of analyzing the findings, inferential methodology has been used. Data collection was also done using the library method based on objective-historical data.