الزامات نظري بازدارندگي در سيستم‌هاي بين‌المللي پيچيده-آشوبي: گامي به سوي نظريه نوين بازدارندگي غيرخطي

Theoretical Requirements of Deterrence in Complex-Chaotic International Systems: A Step towards a New Theory of Nonlinear Deterrence

ﻫﻤﮕﺎم ﺑﺎ ﺗﺤﻮل در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻞ، ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺗﮑﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و ﺷﮑﻞ ﻫﺎي ﻧﻮﯾﻨﯽ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ. روﯾﺎروﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ آﯾﻨﺪه ﻫﻤﺮاه ﺑﺎ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪات ﻧﺎﻣﺘﻘﺎرن در ﯾﮏ ﺳﺎزوﮐﺎر ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ، ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ دﺳﺘﮕﺎه ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﺟﺪﯾﺪي از ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ و ﺑﺎزﺳﺎزي ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ و ﻧﻈﺮي آن را ﺿﺮوري ﻧﻤﻮده و ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ را ﺷﮑﻞ ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ. ﭘﺮﺳﺶ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان در اﯾﻦ اﻟﮕﻮ از ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻞ، ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ را از ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ و ﻧﻈﺮي ﺑﺎزﺳﺎزي ﮐﺮد؟ اﯾﻦ ﻧﻮﺷﺘﺎر ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از روش اﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج ﻗﯿﺎﺳﯽ و ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺑﺮ ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽ و آﺷﻮب ﺑﻮﯾﮋه اﺻﻮل ﺑﻨﯿﺎدﯾﻦ آن ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ اي و ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ ﺑﻮدن ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ، واﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﺣﺴﺎس و ﺷﮑﺴﺖ آﺑﺸﺎري ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎزﺳﺎزي ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ و ﻧﻈﺮي آن اﻗﺪام ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺑﺮ دﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ ﻗﺪرت و ﺳﺎزوﮐﺎرﻫﺎي ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ آن ﺑﻪ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪ، از راه ﻣﻨﻄﻖ و ﺳﺎزوﮐﺎرﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ و اﺻﻮل ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺎﮐﯿﺪ ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽ و آﺷﻮب ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎزﺳﺎزي ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ و ﻧﻈﺮي ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ اﻗﺪام ﮐﺮده و ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺷﺒﮑﻪاي ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ را ﺑﻌﻨﻮان ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ ﻧﻮآوراﻧﻪ و ﻧﻮﯾﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻮزه ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت راﻫﺒﺮدي اراﺋﻪ ﻣﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. اﯾﻦ اﻟﮕﻮ ﺳﺮآﻏﺎزي ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻮج ﺷﺸﻢ ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ در رواﺑﻂ ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. از ﺳﻮي دﯾﮕﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ اﻟﮕﻮي ﻧﻮﯾﻨﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪﮔﯽ اﯾﺮان اراﺋﻪ ﮐﻨﺪ

In West Asia, order, oil, and arms have always been the three main factors in determining the equations, which has led to the continued presence of major supra-regional powers in West Asia. Despite significant differences between China and the European unio‎n, both are strategic partners. Given the presence of China and the European unio‎n in the West Asian region, the question arises as to what effect the economic interests of China and the European unio‎n in this region have on Iran's national security? The main hypothesis is: that: Since China and the European unio‎n have no security competition and at the same time both are important economic players in the world; In the context of extensive US sanctions against Iran, the intersection of the interests of these two supra-regional powers in West Asia and its alignment with the interests of Iran's regional rivals will be a challenge to Iran's national security. This article seeks to answer the question of the article with a comparative view, based on the Copenhagen School of Security