آينده‌پژوهشي و سياستگذاري عمومي: مفاهيم و روش‌ها

Futures Studies and Public Policy: Concepts and Methods

ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ رﺷﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻮم ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎً ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ و ﺣﺎل را ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ. از آﻧﺠﺎ ﮐﻪ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﯾﮑﯽ از رﺷﺘﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز دﺳﺘﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﮕﺬاري اﺳﺖ، ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي ﺗﺮ ﺷﺪن و ارﺗﻘﺎي آن ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﻗﺎدر ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد ﺑﯿﺶ از ﭘﯿﺶ در ﻋﺮﺻﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻨﻮع ﺣﮑﻤﺮاﻧﯽ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﺑﮕﯿﺮد. آﯾﻨﺪه ﭘﮋوﻫﯽ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻋﺮﺻﻪﻫﺎﯾﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ در اﯾﻦ زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺑﻮﯾﮋه ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﮕﺬاري ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﮐﻤﮏ ﮐﻨﺪ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ آﻏﺎز ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان از آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺗﺤﻮﻻت آﯾﻨﺪه در ﻋﺮﺻﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﮕﺬاري ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﺮﻓﺖ؟ ﻫﺪف ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ اراﺋﻪ درك ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ از ﻣﻔﺎﻫﯿﻢ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي آﯾﻨﺪه ﭘﮋوﻫﯽ و ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ روشﻫﺎي ﻫﻔﺖ ﮔﺎﻧﻪ اﺻﻠﯽ آن ﺑﺮاي ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺗﺤﻮﻻت آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺣﺬف ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻏﺎﻓﻠﮕﯿﺮي اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﻼش ﺷﺪه روش ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ، ﻫﻤﺮاه ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ اراﺋﻪ ﮔﺮدد ﺗﺎ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ و اﻫﻤﯿﺖ آﯾﻨﺪه ﭘﮋوﻫﯽ در ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﮕﺬاري ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﻮد. اﯾﻦ ﮐﺎر ﻧﻪﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎزاﻧﺪﯾﺸﯽ ﻣﻄﻠﻮبﺗﺮ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه آن را در دﺳﺘﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﮕﺬاري ارﺗﻘﺎ ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ

Actually political Science takes a look at the past and current political issues. As a course that could be required to be used in the policy process, it needs to be more practical and being feasible in order to policy process to getting ready to face with the issues in advance. Futures studies would be of help for the political science especially the public policy to predict the issues in future. In doing so to know how it could be useful to be enjoyed the futures studies in political science, it deams that it needs to provide a better understanding on the key concepts and the seven methods that use in the futures studies. By introducing how it could be applicatable to public policy, not only does it make a chance to rethinking on the political science but also does it envolve the course status in the actual policy process indeed.