ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻫﻢ ﺣﺮﮐﺘﯽ ﺑﯿﺖ ﮐﻮﯾﻦ، ﻃﻼ و ﻧﺮخ دﻻر ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﻫﻤﺪوﺳﺘﯽ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﮏ

Analyzing the co-motion of bitcoin, gold and dollar with a wavy approach

ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﻣﺮوزي اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ و ﻓﺮاﮔﯿﺮي ﺑﺤﺮان اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﮐﻮوﯾﺪ 19، ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔـﺬاران ﻫﻤـﻮاره ﺑـﻪ دﻧﺒـﺎل ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري ﺑﺮ روي داراﯾﯽﻫﺎي ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺣﻔﻆ ارزش ﭘﻮل، داراي ﺑﺎزده ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﯽ ﻧﯿـﺰ ﺑﺎﺷـﻨﺪ و ﯾﮑـﯽ از دﻻﯾﻠـﯽ ﮐـﻪ داراﯾﯽﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﻃﻼ، ﺑﯿﺖﮐﻮﯾﻦ و دﻻر ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﺨﺸﯽ از ﯾﮏ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاري ﺟﺬاب ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ، اﯾﻦ اﺳـﺖ ﮐـﻪ ﻧـﺮخ آن ﻫـﺎ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﺳﺖ. ﻟﺬا، ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاري در داراﯾﯽ ﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﮐﻤﺘﺮي ﺑﺎ ﯾﮑﺪﯾﮕﺮ دارﻧﺪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ رﯾﺴـﮏ ﺗﻌـﺪ ﯾﻞ ﺷـﺪه ﺑﺎزﮔﺸﺖ داراﯾﯽ ﻫﺎ را اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻫﺪ. از اﯾﻦ رو ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻫﻢﺣﺮﮐﺘﯽ ﺑﯿﺖﮐﻮﯾﻦ، ﻃﻼ و ﻧـﺮخ ﺑﺮاﺑـﺮي دﻻر در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان اﻧﺠﺎم ﭘـﺬﯾﺮﻓﺖ. ﺑـﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈـﻮر ﺑـﺎ اﺳـﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﺤﻠﯿـﻞ ﻫﻤﺪوﺳـﯽ و روﯾﮑـﺮد ﻣﻮﺟـﮏ ، ﻫـﻢ ﺣﺮﮐﺘـﯽ و ارﺗﺒـﺎط دوﺑﻪ دوي اﯾﻦ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎ در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺎل 1390 ﺗﺎ ﻧﯿﻤـﻪ اول ﺳـﺎل 1399 ﻣـﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ ﻗـﺮار ﮔﺮﻓـﺖ . ﻧﺘـﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻫﻤﺪوﺳﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ در اﻓﻖ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 1393-1390 و اﻓﻖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﯿﺎن ﻣـﺪت ﻃـﯽ ﺳـﺎل ﻫـﺎي 1390 اﻟﯽ 1395 ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎزدﻫﯽ ﺑﯿﺖ ﮐـﻮﯾﻦ و ﻧـﺮخ ارز در ﺟﻬـﺖ ﻋﮑـﺲ )ﻓـﺎز ﻣﺨـﺎﻟﻒ( ﺑـﻮده اﺳـﺖ. اﻣـﺎ در اﻓـﻖ ﻫـﺎي ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﺗﺮ در ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 1392 اﻟﯽ 1396 ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎزده ﻃﻼ ﺑﻌﺪ از ﺑﯿﺖ ﮐﻮﯾﻦ ﺣﺮﮐﺖ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ و ﯾﮏ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﭘـﺲ روﻧـﺪه ﻣﺤﺴـﻮب ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ آن ﻫﻤﺪوﺳﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎزدﻫﯽ ﻃﻼ و ﺑﯿﺖ ﮐﻮﯾﻦ ﻧﺸـﺎن ﻣـﯽ دﻫـﺪ ﮐـﻪ ﺷـﺪت ارﺗﺒـﺎط ﺑـﯿﻦ اﯾـﻦ دو ﻣﺘﻐﯿـﺮ در ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ اﻓﻖ ﻫﺎ و در ﻃﻮل دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﭼﻨﺪان زﯾﺎد ﻧﺒﻮده اﺳﺖ؛ اﻣﺎ ارﺗﺒﺎط اﯾﻦ دو ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ در ﺳﺎلﻫـﺎي 1396 اﻟـ ﯽ 1398 در اﻓﻖ 16 اﻟﯽ 64 ﻫﻔﺘﻪ ﺷﺪت زﯾﺎدي داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺟﻬﺖ اﯾﻦ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻌﮑﻮس ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ.

Investors in times of crisis and inflation are always looking to invest in assets that, while maintaining the value of money, also have a good return, and one of the reasons is that gold assets, between Quinn and the dollar, are part of an investment. Comprehensive are attractive, they can increase their growth rate. Investing in assets that are less correlated with each other can increase the adjusted risk of return on assets. This article seeks to examine the movement of Bit coin, gold and the dollar exchange rate in the Iranian economy. For this purpose, using the analysis of empathy and econophysical approach, the interaction and bilateral communication of these markets in the Iranian economy for the period of 24/9/2011 to 16/7/2020and with weekly frequency were examined. The results of empathy analysis show that in the short-term horizon during the years 2011-2013 and the medium-term horizons during the years 2011 to 2016, the relationship between bitcoin rate of return and exchange rate in the opposite direction (opposite phase) has been. But in the longer term, between 2013 and 2017, the gold yield is moving after bitcoin and is considered a reversible variable. In addition, the correlation between gold and bitcoin return rates shows that the intensity of the relationship between these two variables in all agreements and during the research period was not very high, but the relationship between these two variables in the years 2017 to 2020 on the horizon 16 to 64 weeks has been very intense, but the opposite has been the case.