پويش‌هاي تهديدزاي منطقه قفقاز جنوبي عليه امنيت ملي جمهوري اسلامي ايران

Threats toward the Islamic Republic of Iran through the South Caucasus Strategic Position and Countermeasures

وﺿﻊ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد آﺳﯿﺎي ﻣﺮﮐﺰي و ﻗﻔﻘﺎز ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﮑﺜﺮ ﭘﻮﯾﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻓﺮوﻣﻠﯽ، درون ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اي، ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اي و ﻓﺮاﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اي، درﺑﺮدارﻧﺪه ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﻫﺎ و ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪﻫﺎي ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﯽ ﺑﺮاي اﯾﺮان اﺳﺖ. ﻗﻔﻘﺎز ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺴﺘﺮ و ﭘﻬﻨﻪ ﺷﮑﻞ ﮔﯿﺮي ﭘﻮﯾﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪزاي ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﻋﻠﯿﻪ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ و ﺛﺒﺎت ﻣﻠﯽ ﺟﻤﻬﻮري اﺳﻼﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﯽ از آن ﻫﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪزاﯾﯽ ﻓﺰاﯾﻨﺪه اي ﻧﯿﺰ دارﻧﺪ. ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﭘﻮﯾﺶﻫﺎي ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪزاي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻗﻔﻘﺎز ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ ﻋﻠﯿﻪ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﻣﻠﯽ ج.ا.اﯾﺮان ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﻣﺤﻮري اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ درﻧﻈﺮﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ و ﺗﻼش ﺷﺪ ﺑﺎ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺑﻨﺪي اﯾﻦ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪات در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ، راه ﮐﺎرﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ اي ﺟﻬﺖ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ آن اراﺋﻪ ﺷﻮد. ﺳﺆال اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﻮﯾﺶ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪزاي ﻣﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﺟﻤﻬﻮري اﺳﻼﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان ازﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﻗﻔﻘﺎز ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ ﮐﺪاﻣﻨﺪ و راه ﮐﺎرﻫﺎي اﯾﺮان ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻬﺎر آن ﻫﺎ ﭼﯿﺴﺖ؟ روش ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ـ ﮐﻤﯽ )آﻣﯿﺨﺘﻪ( اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮐﻠﯽ ﺣﺎﺻﻠﻪ اﯾﻨﮑﻪ در ﻗﻔﻘﺎز ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪﻫﺎي اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي/ژﺋﻮاﮐﻮﻧﻮﻣﯿﮑﯽ، اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮي دارﻧﺪ. اﻫﻢ راه ﮐﺎرﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻋﺒﺎرﺗﻨﺪ از ارﺗﻘﺎي ﻫﻤﮑﺎري ﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻗﺪرت ﻫﺎي آﺳﯿﺎﯾﯽ، اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ دادن ﺑﻪ ﭘﺮوژه ﻫﺎي زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺘﯽ ﻓﺮاﻣﺮزي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺨﻠﯿﻪ ژﺋﻮﭘﻠﯿﺘﯿﮑﯽ، ﺑﺮﭘﺎﯾﯽ دﻓﺘﺮ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﻓﻨﯽ ـ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ، اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﻮان ﻓﻨﯽ و ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﺑﻮﻣﯽ ﺑﺮاي رﻓﻊ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﻓﻨﯽ ـ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ و ﺳﺮاﻧﺠﺎم، ﻓﻌﺎل ﺳﺎزي ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ ﻫﺎي دﯾﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﯽ دﻓﺎﻋﯽ.

Historically, security developments in the South of Caucasus have had a direct impact on Iran's national security interests. The Southern Caucasus is reason for the formation of various threatening movements against the security and national stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran, some of which have an increasing threatening coefficient. Identification of threatening dynamics in the South Caucasus region against the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran was considered as the central issue of this study and an attempt was made to prioritize these threats in the region to provide optimal solutions to deal with it. The main question is;” what are the most important threats to the Islamic Republic of Iran through the South Caucasus and what are Iran's strategies to curb them? “ The research method is qualitative-quantitative (mixed). The overall result is that security and economic / geoeconomic threats have a higher priority in the South Caucasus. The most important research strategies are to enhance cooperation with Asian powers, prioritize various cross-border infrastructure projects to deal with geopolitical depletion, establish a technical-engineering needs assessment office in the region, use local technical capacity and engineering to meet the technical-engineering needs of countries and finally Activation of defense diplomacy capabilities