كليدواژه :
فقر , نرخ ارز , شاخص فقر , سن , اثرات نامتقارن , ايران
چكيده فارسي :
هدف: حذف فقر همواره از اهداف توسعه اجتماعي است. نرخ ارز نيز متغير كليدي در سياست‌گذاري‌ها محسوب مي‌شود. در سال‌هاي اخير نرخ واقعي ارز داراي نوسانات زيادي بوده و اطلاع از تأثيرات آن در تنظيم سياست‌هاي اقتصادي حائز اهميت است.
روش: در پژوهش حاضر اثرات نامتقارن مثبت و منفي نرخ ارز بر فقر در اقتصاد ايران طي دوره 1364 تا 1397 بااستفاده از مدل ARDL غيرخطي موردبررسي قرارگرفته است.
يافته‌ها: نتايج به‌دست‌آمده نشان مي‌دهند كه افزايش نرخ ارز بر فقر در بلندمدت تأثيرگذار است. در كوتاه‌مدت هم با يك دوره تأخير تغييرات نرخ ارز موجب افزايش فقر گشته و كاهش نرخ واقعي ارز اثري بر كاهش فقر چه در كوتاه‌مدت و چه بلندمدت نداشته است. همچنين كمك‌هاي دولت در بودجه به اقشار ضعيف و كم‌درآمد در بلندمدت و كوتاه‌مدت نيز باعث كاهش فقر نگرديده است كه اين امر نشان مي‌دهد كه در سرفصل كمك‌هاي رفاهي دولت در بودجه سنواتي بايد موردبازنگري قرار گيرد.
نتيجه‌گيري: نتايج به‌دست‌آمده نشان مي‌دهند كه هم در كوتاه‌مدت و هم در بلندمدت، تنها افزايش نرخ ارز تأثير مخربي بر فقر خواهد داشت، بنابراين دولت‌ها بايد سياست‌هايي اتخاذ كنند كه شاهد نوسانات شديد نرخ ارز واقعي به‌ويژه در راستاي افزايش آن نباشيم و در صورت امكان سياست‌هاي پولي و مالي به صورتي تبيين گردد تا نوسانات نرخ ارز را به كمترين مقدارش برساند. به‌علاوه باوجوداينكه نرخ ارز يك انتخاب براي سياست‌گذاران نيست، اما درصورت وقوع چنين شرايطي، اثرات منفي افزايش نرخ ارز مي‌تواند با حمايت‌هاي دولت از طريق پرداخت‌هاي انتقالي و پرداخت‌هاي غيرمستقيم به اقشار آسيب‌پذير كاهش يابد.
چكيده لاتين :
Objective: Poverty is one of the most important social problems that have been always
affected the lives of many people, so eliminating this problem is always among the goals of
social development. Despite the many efforts that have been made throughout history to
eliminate this phenomenon, it has existed for many years and among different countries and
continues despite economic growth among underdeveloped or developing countries. In the
economics literatures, several factors are effective in creating and spreading poverty, one of
which can be considered the exchange rate, which is considered as a key and important
economic variable in policy-making. In recent years, the real exchange rate has fluctuated in
recent years, and it is important to know its effects on economic policy- making. So, one
cannot overlook the significant impact of the exchange rate on poverty. Therefore, the aim of
the present study is to try to find out what the asymmetric effects of the exchange rate will be
on poverty.
Methods: The research variables include poverty index, the real exchange rate and
government support. To study the subject, have been used the latest data of the Iran during
the period of 1985 to 2018. In this research, a dynamic panel threshold model is investigated
to distinguish the asymmetric effects of real exchange rates on poverty. This approach
combines time series models with threshold modeling approaches. In this paper, using
NARDL, an attempt is made to investigate the positive and negative asymmetric effects of
exchange rates on poverty in the Iranian economy using a nonlinear model.
Results: The results show that long term exchange rate impacts on poverty in Iran. In the
short run, with a period of delay, exchange rate fluctuations increase poverty in Iran, and real
exchange rate declines have no effect on poverty reduction. Also government assistance to
the poor and low- income groups in the long and short run has not reduced poverty in the
country.
Conclusion: The results show that in both the short and long term, only an increase in the
exchange rate will have a devastating effect on poverty and its impact is greater in the long
term than in the short term. and in the short and long term, the depreciation of the real
exchange rate has no effect on the reduction of poverty, so governments must implement
policies that do not cause sharp fluctuations in the real exchange rate, especially in the event
of an increase. The possibility of monetary and fiscal policies should be determined in such a
way as to minimize exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, although the exchange rate is not
a choice for policymakers, if faced with these conditions, the negative effects of an increase
in the exchange rate can be mitigated by government support for the poor through transfer
payments and indirect payments to vulnerable groups.
