پديد آورندگان :
اخگر، محمد اميد دانشگاه كردستان - دانشكده علوم انساني و اجتماعي - گروه حسابداري، سنندج، ايران , سجادي، زانيار دانشگاه كردستان - دانشكده علوم انساني و اجتماعي - گروه حسابداري، سنندج، ايران , حاجي ميرزائي، مائده دانشگاه كردستان - دانشكده علوم انساني و اجتماعي - گروه حسابداري، سنندج، ايران
چكيده فارسي :
هدف: شوك‌ها و نوسانات اقتصادي پياپي در سال‌هاي اخير سبب بي‌انضباطي در سياست‌هاي اقتصادي دولت شده است كه اين مسئله نااطميناني سياست‌هاي اقتصادي را تشديد نموده است. با توجه به اين كه چنين شرايطي بر تصميمات مالي و كيفيت گزارشگري واحدهاي تجاري مي‌تواند اثرگذار باشد؛ پژوهش حاضر به بررسي ارتباط نااطميناني سياست‌هاي اقتصادي و مديريت سود مبتني بر اقلام تعهدي و نقش چرخه عمر شركت‌ها بر اين رابطه مي‌پردازد.
روش: در اين پژوهش داده‌هاي 125 واحد تجاري پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طي سال‌هاي 1391 تا 1397 مورد بررسي قرار گرفت. جهت اندازه‌گيري مديريت سود از اقلام تعهدي اختياري مطابق مدل كوتاري و همكاران (2005) استفاده شد. شاخص نااطميناني سياست‌هاي اقتصادي با استفاده از الگوي خود رگرسيوني واريانس شرطي محاسبه گرديد و طبقه‌بندي واحدهاي تجاري در مراحل مختلف چرخه عمر مطابق مدل ديكنسون (2011) صورت پذيرفت.
يافته‌ها: نتايج نشان مي‌دهد كه نااطميناني سياست‌هاي اقتصادي با مديريت سود رابطه مثبتي دارد و اين ارتباط در مراحل مختلف چرخه عمر شركت به صورت ناهمگن است به طوري كه در مرحله ايجاد و رشد اين ارتباط تضعيف گرديده و در مرحله بلوغ شدت مي‌يابد؛ اما مرحله افول، اثر معناداري بر اين رابطه ندارد.
نتيجه‌گيري: با افزايش نااطميناني سياست‌هاي اقتصادي، فرصت و انگيزه لازم جهت اقدام به مديريت سود توسط مديران افزايش مي‌يابد. شواهد حاكي از آن است هرگاه نااطميناني سياست‌هاي اقتصادي افزايش يابد، شركت‌هاي طبقه‌بندي شده در مرحله بلوغ بيشتر اقدام به مديريت سود مي‌نمايند و شركت‌هاي طبقه‌بندي شده در مرحله ايجاد و رشد، كمتر سود را دستكاري مي‌كنند.
چكيده لاتين :
Objective: Because of economic shocks and fluctuations in recent years, the government faces indiscipline in economic policies and increase the uncertainty issue in economic policies. In such situations, on the firm-level managers deal with uncertainty too. Firms uncertainties affect managers estimates and decisions. On the other hand, when conditions of uncertainty exist, managers would face difficulties to meet forecasted earnings and have motivations to manipulate earnings to meet the market expectations. On the other hand Investors pay a great deal of attention to firms announced earnings for valuation and investment decisions and even the evaluation of managers' performance. Due to the probable effects of economic policy uncertainty on financial decisions and firms reporting quality, the purpose of this research is investigating the relationship between economic policy uncertainty, accrual base earnings management and then investigating moderation effects of life cycle stages of this relationship.
Method: In order to achieve the research purpose, 125 companies (1068 firm-years) were selected from the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2013 to 2019 by systematic elimination sampling method. Research sample is excluded from financial firms, banks, insurance firms or firms with missing data. For measuring the earnings management, discretionary accruals model based on Kothari et al (2005) is used. Uncertainty economic policy index is created by using conditional variation autoregression to determine four macro volatilities then the results were combined with regression and principal component analysis to achieve a single index. In order to classify firms to different life cycle stages, Dickinson (2011) model is used.
Results: As expected, results show that there is a positive relationship between policy uncertainty and accrual base earnings management and there are significant differences in strength of this relationship in different stages of company life cycle. In the introduction and growth stage this relationship is decreased and in mature stage the relationship is strong but, in the decline stage this relationship is not significant and we see a significant effect of life cycle stages as a moderator variable on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and accrual base earnings management.
Conclusion: These results show that by increasing the economic policy uncertainty, mangers have more chance and motivations to manage earnings. As economic policy uncertainty increased, we see more earnings management for firms in mature stage compared to firms in the introduction and growth stages. Maybe managers of the firms in mature stage have greater experience and knowledge about techniques applicable in their firm to manipulate earnings. Thereby, it is advisable for lenders and also for investor and analysts to pay a great deal of attention to the level of economic policy uncertainty and stages of company life cycle using earnings for valuation and manager performance evaluation. Also, in economic policy uncertainty situations auditors should consider risk of earnings management in planning and conducting an audit.
