تأثير سياست‌هاي پولي و محيط‌هاي تورمي بر حجم سپرده بانك‌هاي خصوصي و دولتي در ايران (رهيافت داده‌هاي تابلويي پويا)

The Effects of Monetary Policy and Inflationary Environment on Deposits in Private and Governmental Banks of Iran (Dynamic Panel Data Analysis)

هدف: بررسي ارتباط بين محيط‌هاي تورمي و سياست‌هاي پولي با سپرده‌هاي بانك‌ها يكي از مباحث مهم و اساسي در ادبيات اقتصاد پول و بانكداري محسوب شده و بخش بيشتر‌اي از مطالعات تجربي را در سال‌هاي اخير به خود اختصاص داده است. هدف اصلي اين مطالعه تبيين تأثيرگذاري سياست‌هاي پولي و محيط‌هاي تورمي بر حجم سپرده 23 بانك خصوصي و دولتي طي سال‌هاي 1398-1387 است. روش: در اين پژوهش ابتدا با بهره‌گيري از رهيافت غيرخطي چرخشي ماركوف محيط‌هاي تورمي آرام و ملايم و شديد استخراج و در ادامه به روش داده‌هاي تابلويي پويا و در قالب تخمين‌زننده گشتاور تعميم يافته به برآورد اثر سياست پولي نرخ رشد حجم نقدينگي، نرخ سود بانكي و نسبت ذخيره قانوني بانك‌ها بر حجم سپرده بانك‌ها پرداخته شده است. يافته‌ها: نتايج تخمين الگو دلالت بر اين دارد كه اثر متقاطع نرخ رشد حجم نقدينگي با محيط‌هاي تورمي شديد و نسبت ذخيره قانوني بانك‌ها تأثير منفي و كيفيت نقدينگي و دارايي، نرخ رشد توليد ناخالص داخلي حقيقي و نرخ سود سپرده‌هاي بانكي تأثير مثبت و معنادار بر حجم سپرده بانك‌هاي مورد بررسي داشته‌اند. نتيجه‌گيري: بر اساس يافته‌هاي مطالعه پيشنهاد مي‌شود سياستگذاران پولي و بانكي با كنترل حجم نقدينگي و ارتقاي ظرفيت توليد و رشد اقتصادي و نيز كنترل سطح عمومي قيمت‌ها زمينه افزايش ميزان سپرده‌هاي بانك‌ها را فراهم نمايند.

Objective: The relationship between monetary policy shocks and total deposits of banks are one of the main important issues in monetary economics and banking literatures and has been considered empirically in recent years. Hence, the main aim of this paper is to evaluate the relationship among these variables by applying dynamic panel data approach for 23 private and governmental banks during the 2008-2019. Method: For achieving this purpose, at first the inflationary environments have been extracted by Markov- Switching and then, by utilizing dynamic panel data and GMM estimator the short-run relationship between variables have been tested. Results: The empirical findings of this paper indicated that the first order lag of bank deposits has a positive and significant effect on the volume of deposits in current year and its amount is equal to 0.17. Also, the variable of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with severe inflation environments and banks 'legal reserve ratio has a negative and significant effect on private banks' deposit volume and the variables of long-term deposit interest rate, real GDP growth rate and liquidity quality have a positive and significant effect on deposit volume. State-owned banks are positive and meaningful, consistent with theoretical expectations. The deposit profit rate has positive and other monetary policy variables such as liquidity growth rate and rule of deposits ratio and cross effect of liquidity money growth with inflationary environment have negative impact on the total deposits of Banks. Regarding the negative and significant effect of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with high inflation environments, it can be argued that with increasing liquidity and increasing demand, the general level of prices increases and consequently inflation rate increases and the economy enters a severe inflation environment, so expect as inflation intensifies, demand for deposits in banks will decrease and the incentive to invest in alternative environments such as the foreign exchange market, gold and other assets will increase. In addition, the value of Sargan test statistics indicates that the null hypothesis is not rejected and the instrumental variables defined in the model are valid. Because the value of this test statistic shows that the instrument variables defined are not correlated with the error terms. It is worth noting that in this estimate, due to the shorter period of time under study, the second-order interval of the volume of deposits of private and state-owned banks is considered as an instrument variable. According to the results of Arellano & Bond, it can be inferenced that the order of self-correlation between the disorder sentences was of the first order. Therefore, this method is a best method to eliminate the fixed effects of the model. Conclusion: Considering the negative and significant effect of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with inflationary environments on the deposit volume of the banking sector, it is suggested that economic policymakers apply contractionary monetary policies to control and decrease the volume of liquidity and control the general level of prices and inflation. Provide calm and gentle inflationary environments as well as increase the investment of individuals and legal entities with banks and help increase their deposits.