اتحاديه اروپا و معماي ايجاد موازنه در روابط با چين و امريكا

The EU and the Dilemma of Balancing its Relations with China and the United States

تحولات اخير در ساختار نظام بين‌الملل، موضع سه كنشگر عمده جهاني يعني اتحاديه اروپا، ايالات متحده و چين نسبت به نظم موجود جهاني و سازوكار مديريت آن را تحت تأثير قرار داده و به ائتلاف‌هاي منافع-بنيان جديد شكل داده است. در چارچوب نظريه موازنه منافع رندال شوولر، پرسش اصلي مقاله اين است كه اتحاديه اروپا به‌عنوان يكي از بازيگران طرفدار حفظ وضع موجود، چه انتخاب‌هايي را در ارتباط با ايالات متحده تجديدنظرطلب و چين فرصت‌طلب در اختيار دارد؟ در فرضيه اصلي استدلال مي‌شود كه منفعت مشترك اتحاديه اروپا و ايالات متحده در حفظ بنيان‌هاي غرب‌محور نظم جهاني و منفعت مشترك اتحاديه اروپا و چين در حفظ چندجانبه‌گرايي به‌عنوان سازوكار مديريت نظم (به‌طور مشخص چندجانبه‌گرايي تجاري)، سياست اتحاديه اروپا را در جهت ايجاد موازنه در روابط خود ميان اين دو كنشگر، و هم‌زمان شكل دادن به ائتلاف منافع-بنيان خاص خود با قدرت‌هاي ميانه سوق داده است. داده‌هاي كيفي موجود در مطالعات و گزارش‌هاي دولتي و غيردولتي گردآوري شده، و با روش تحليل سناريوهاي محتمل و در چارچوب بازي‌ كالاهاي عمومي، طيف وسيعي از موضوع‌هاي مطرح در روابط بين اين كنشگران در حال و آينده احتمالي بررسي خواهد شد. سناريوها كمك مي‌كنند تا درك بهتري از ديدگاه‌ها و جهان‌بيني ذينفعان مختلف به‌دست آوريم. بازي‌هاي كالاهاي عمومي براي شناخت نقش عقلانيت در تصميم‌گيري كنشگران و مشوق‌هاي تاثيرگذار در رفتار آنها مفيد بوده، و مشخص مي‌كنند كه چه منافعي به انتخاب راهبرد همكاري موازنه‌كننده اتحاديه اروپا در روابط با اين قدرت‌هاي بزرگ منجر شده است.

With the rise of emerging powers, the multilateral liberal international order, which has always been characterized as having the full support of the transatlantic alliance partners, is grappling with the challenges of inadequacy of the United States as a hegemonic power, and illegitimacy of rival powers such as China. In the meantime, the European unio‎n, as a key actor believes in the indirect exercise of power through the institutions of global governance, and seeks to protect and restore the legitimacy and effectiveness of the multilateral international system as an entity that can provide more space and opportunities for Europe to safeguard its interest. Recent developments in the structure of the international system have affected the relative position of the three major global actors (i.e., the European unio‎n, the United States and China) in the existing world order and its management mechanism which will be influenced by new interest-based alliances. By collecting qualitative data available in governmental and non-governmental studies and reports, and by developing and analyzing possible scenarios, the authors attempt to answer the following research question: What choices do the EU status-quo supporters have in order to create a balance between the revisionist United States and opportunist China? Based on Schweller's theory of revisionist or status quo behaviors of governments, and his four types of governments (i.e., lion, lamb, fox and wolf), the policies of the United States, China, and the European unio‎n have been analyzed in terms of maintaining or changing the status quo. Within the context of this theory, in their research hypothesis, the authors postulate that given the common interest of the EU and the United States in maintaining the Western-oriented international order and the common interest of the EU and China in upholding multilateralism (particularly trade multilateralism) as a mechanism for managing order, the EU has formulated its policy of balancing relations with the US and China. For hypothesis testing, five probable scenarios are developed and analyzed. It is asserted that the use of scenarios and public goods game as a research tool will be useful in carefully examining the contentious issues in the relationship between key international actors. Scenarios help to better understand the worldviews and policies of multiple stakeholders. Public goods games have been useful in understanding the role of rationality in actors' decision-making and the key behavioral incentives which determine what choices will be made for cooperation and conflict in inter-state relations. The EU's share in the supply of global public goods (based on Western values) and the role that the EU should play in this international game are determined based on “absolute personal interests”. The key factors which work as incentives for the role of the EU in the supply of public goods are the self-seeking benefits of their contributions, the expected costs associated with the failure to participate in the supply of public goods, and the concerns about the irrational or opportunist behaviors of the other international players which might try to maximize their own benefits at the expense of the EU. In conclusion, it is argued that the most likely scenario would probably be a hybrid scenario in which the European unio‎n is reasonably anticipated to follow its own independent path in order to maintain global multilateralism, but in parallel with its transatlantic cooperation with the US to contain China, and its continued policy of keeping its trade ties with China intact. Such a dual-purpose policy would be adopted to maintain the EU's capacity for independent action while balancing its relationship with both China and the US. In other words, the European unio‎n is primarily seeking to enhance (and then maintain) its capacity for independent action so that in case of the intensification of the renewed great power competition and even hostility, it could use this capacity in cooperation with the middle powers of the international systems for the purpose of safeguarding its independent position in global affairs. The EU is aware of the undeniable role of the United States and China in shaping the world order, and is eager to increase the breadth and complexity of its relations with these two players. It is not surprising to observe the EU’s continued efforts to maintain good relations with both China and the United States based on a set of common interests since it wants to avoid being relegated to a bargaining chip in a probable US-China confrontation.. In sum, the EU is forced to play a balancing act between China and the US, but it is also interested in forming interest-based alliances with the middle powers.