ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت داﺧﻠﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺳﻨﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي اﯾﺮان

Spatial Analysis of the Effect of Internal Migration on Changing the Population Age Structure in Counties of Iran

درﺣﺎلﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت داﺧﻠﯽ، ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ، در ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﺎروري و ﻣﺮگوﻣﯿﺮ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ و اﺻﻠﯽﺗﺮﯾﻦ روﻧﺪ ﺷﮑﻞﮔﯿﺮي اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎي ﺳﮑﻮﻧﺖ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ در داﺧﻞ و ﺑﯿﻦ ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪﻋﻼوه ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت داﺧﻠﯽ، ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﻓﺮاﯾﻨﺪ ﮔﺰﯾﻨﺸﯽ ﺑﻮدن ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت، ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎزﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﮔﺮوهﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﻨﯽ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد و ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺳﻨﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ را در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺒﺪأ و ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ. دراﯾﻦراﺳﺘﺎ، اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت داﺧﻠﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺳﻨﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺛﺎﻧﻮﯾﻪ دادهﻫﺎي ﺳﺮﺷﻤﺎري ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1390 و 1395 ﻣﯽﭘﺮدازد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﺑﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ﺳﻨﯿﻦ ﺟﻮاﻧﯽ ﺳﺎل اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ آزﻣﻮن ﻣﻮراﻧﺰآيِ دوﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮه ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪﯾﺎﻓﺘﮕﯽ و 29-15 ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺳﻨﯽ، ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت، وﺟﻮد دارد. در واﻗﻊ، ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺟﻮان در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ، و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ آن در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎي ﮐﻤﺘﺮﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ، ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت داﺧﻠﯽ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺟﻮان، ﮐﻪ ﻣﺤﻮر و ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﺳﺖ، ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮيﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي در ﮐﺸﻮر ﺷﻮد.

At present, internal migration, as an important driver of population change has contributed as a replacement of fertility and death in many countries, and is considered as the main trend in the patterns of human settlement within and between countries. In addition to internal migration, due to the selective process of migration, it leads to redistribution of different age groups in the country and create changes in the age structure of the population in both the origin and destination of migration. In this regard, this article examines the effect of internal migration on changing the population age structure of the counties in Iran using secondary analysis of the 2011 and 2016 census data. The results indicated the greatest change happens in the age composition of 15-29 years. The results of the bivariate Moran's test showed that there is a spatial correlation between the levels of development and age structure changes due to migration. In fact, migration leads to a rise in the share of the young population in more developed counties, and a reduction of young population in the less developed counties. As a result, internal migration can lead to increased regional inequalities by changing the composition of the young population, which is an essential factor of development.