پديد آورندگان :
ﺧﺎﻟﻘﯽ، ﻋﻘﯿﻞ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ - داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي - ﮔﺮوه ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ، ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ، اﯾﺮان , ﯾﮕﺎﻧﻪ، اﻓﺸﯿﻦ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ - داﻧﺸﮑﺪه ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰي - ﮔﺮوه ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ، ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ، اﯾﺮان
كليدواژه :
ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت , ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ آﻣﯿﺨﺘﻪ , ورزﻗﺎن , آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺮي
چكيده فارسي :
آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺮي و ﺑﻪ ﺳﺒﺐ آن، آﮔﺎﻫﯽ از ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ آﯾﻨﺪه ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﺆﺛﺮي در ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و ﻧﯿﺰ ﮐﺎرﺑﺴﺖ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي درﺳﺖ در ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ آن ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ورزﻗﺎن ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ازﻧﻈﺮ ﻫﺪف، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي و ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻣﺎﻫﯿﺖ و روش از ﻧﻮع ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ- ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﻮده و ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ روشﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ، ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ روشﻫﺎي ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ )آﻣﯿﺨﺘﻪ( از ﻧﻮع ﻫﻤﮕﺮا اﺳﺖ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ از روش ﻓﺮاﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ و در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﻤﯽ از آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺮي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در اﻓﻖ 15 ﺳﺎل ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار اﺳﭙﮑﺘﺮوم اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﻋﻠﻞ و ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت، درﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﺗﻌﺪاد 9 ﻣﻘﻮﻟﻪ در ﻣﻮرد ﻋﻠﻞ و زﻣﯿﻨﻪ، 8 ﻣﻘﻮﻟﻪ در ﻣﻮرد ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ و 10 ﻣﻘﻮﻟﻪ ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان راﻫﮑﺎر ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺮي ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺪرﯾﺠﯽ ﻣﯿﺰانﻫﺎي ﻧﺮخ ﺣﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﻪ 0/84 و ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺟﻨﺴﯽ ﺑﻪ رﻗﻢ 103/49 ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ رﺳﯿﺪ. ﻧﺮخ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺳﺎﻟﺨﻮرده اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و اﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻣﯽرود در اﻓﻖ 1411، ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ زﯾﺮ 14 ﺳﺎل 23 درﺻﺪ، ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ 15 ﺗﺎ 64 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ 67 درﺻﺪ و ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﺎﻻي 65 ﺳﺎل 10 درﺻﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮردﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ را ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮد اﺧﺘﺼﺎص دﻫﻨﺪ. اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺑﺨﺸﯽ و ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ دادهﻫﺎي ﮐﻤﯽ-ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي »ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺟﻨﺴﯽ، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﮐﻮدك ﺑﻪ زن، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﺳﻦ ﺑﺎروري و ﭘﯿﺮي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ« ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت روﺳﺘﺎ- ﺷﻬﺮي ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ، در ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﮐﻤﯽ و آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺮي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻣﻄﺮح ﺑﻮده و ﻫﻤﻮاره اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ در اﻓﻖ 15 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ ﯾﮏ روﻧﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺪرﯾﺠﯽ روﺑﺮو ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻮد.
چكيده لاتين :
Foresight and awareness of the future composition of the rural population can play an effective role in the development and application of principled policies in the planning structure of the region, which the present study has analyzed with emphasis on the role of migration in Varzeqan. This research is applied, descriptive-analytical and combined in terms of purpose, nature and methodology, respectively. In the qualitative part, the meta-combined method has been used and in the quantitative part, the population foresight in the horizon of 15 years has been done by using spectrum software. In the analysis of the causes and consequences of migration, 9 categories about the causes and context, 8 categories about the consequences and 10 categories have been identified as solutions. The results of the forecast of demographic indicators indicate a gradual decrease in the rate of vital rates, which will increase the population growth rate to 0.84 and the sex ratio to 103.49. The aging population rate is expected to reach 23% in the 1411 horizon, 23% in the under-14 population, 67% in the 15- to 64-year-old population and 10% in the over-65 population. Also, the interpretation of quantitative-qualitative data shows that the indicators of "decrease in sex ratio, decrease in child-to-woman ratio, decrease in mean reproductive age and population aging", which are known as the consequences of rural-urban migration, have been considered in quantitative and futures analysis. These indicators will always face a gradual decline over the 15-year horizon.
