ارزيابي عوامل جغرافيايي اثرگذار بر جريان رقابت‌پذيري توسعه شهري مبتني بر برنامه‌ريزي راهبردي سناريويي (مطالعه موردي:‌ استان اذربايجان غربي)

Assessing the Affecting Geographical Factors of the Urban Development Competitiveness Based on Strategic Scenario Planning (Case Study: West Azerbaijan Province)

ﺷﻮاﻫﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮﻫﺎي درون ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اي ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺑﺨﺸﯽ ﻧﮕﺮي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و ﻓﺮآﯾﻨﺪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺰاري ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ از ﺗﺒﻌﺎت ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ آن اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰﮔﺮاﯾﯽ در ﮐﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي ﻋﻤﺪه و ﻣﺤﺪود اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺒﻨﺎ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻠﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮي و ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﺗﻮان ﻣﻮﺟﻮدﯾﺖ ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ، ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ وﯾﮋﮔﯽ ﻫﺎي ﺧﺎص ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﯽ، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ، ﺑﻮم ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﯽ، اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﯿﻦ ﮐﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﺛﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﮐﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي اﺳﺘﺎن اذرﺑﺎﯾﺠﺎن ﻏﺮﺑﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﻧﺠﺎم اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ از روﯾﮑﺮدي ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ـ ﮐﻤﯽ ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﭘﯿﺸﺮان ﻫﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﺣﻮزه )دﻟﻔﯽ( ﺑﻪ وﺳﯿﻠﮥ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار وزن دﻫﯽ، اوزان اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج و اﺑﻌﺎد ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار Meta-SWOT، 15 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﺛﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي در اﻓﻖ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1410 ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ و ﻣﺠﺪداً ﺑﻪ روش دﻟﻔﯽ در اﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﻧﻈﺮان ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﮔﻮﯾﺎي اﯾﻦ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﮐﻼﻧﺸﻬﺮ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺑﺎ دارا ﺑﻮدن ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﻧﺨﺴﺖ رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎن ﮐﺎﻧﻮن ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻫﺎي ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ اﺳﺘﺎن اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ در ﺣﺎﻟﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاري دوﻟﺘﯽ، ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺬاران، ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﯾﺰان و ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻻن، ﻋﻼﻗﻪ ﻣﻨﺪي ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاري در اﺳﺘﺎن و ﻓﻘﺪان زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ در ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﮐﻼن از ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪه ﺟﺮﯾﺎن رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ رﺗﺒﻪ ﺑﻨﺪي و اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري از ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار Micmac اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه و ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎورﮐﺮدﻧﯽ در رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺷﻬﺮي اﺳﺘﺎن ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد آﯾﻨﺪه ﻧﮕﺎري ﻣﺸﺨﺺ و راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ.

Evidence suggests that inequalities within regions are the result of top-down development programs and the policy-making process, with spatial consequences of increasing centralization in major and limited urban centers. Accordingly, one of the adjustment policies aimed at reducing inequality and strengthening the existence of cities is to emphasize the flow of competitiveness based on specific legal, political, ecological, social and economic characteristics between urban centers. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the factors affecting the competitiveness of urban centers in West Azerbaijan province. A qualitative-quantitative approach has been used to do this article. In the first part, drivers are identified by experts in the field (Delphi) by weighting software, extraction weights and dimensions, and then by Meta-SWOT software, 15 effective factors. The competitiveness of urban development in the time horizon of 1410 was determined and again provided to experts by Delphi method. The results show the fact that the metropolis of Urmia, with its first position of competitiveness, is still the center of space currents in the province. Meanwhile, public investment strategies, the attention of policy makers, planners and officials, the interest of the private sector in investing in the province and the lack of large-scale development infrastructure are the most important factors determining the competitiveness of urban development. In the final part, Micmac software was used by ranking and extracting the impact matrix and believable situations in the competitiveness of urban development of the province were identified with a specific futuristic approach and proposed strategies.