تببين شاخص‌هاي رشد هوشمندشهري با رويكرد آينده نگاري( مطالعه موردي: شهر اروميه)

Explaining Urban Smart Indicators of Foresight Approach (Case Study: Urmia City)

رﺷﺪ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺷﻬﺮ و ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل آن اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻬﺮي در ﭼﻨﺪ دﻫﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﭼﻮن اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻧﺎﺑﺠﺎ از زﻣﯿﻦ، ﮔﺴﺘﺮش زاﻏﻪ و رﺷﺪ ﻗﺎرچ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺷﻬﺮ، ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺪه روي، ﻋﺪم ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ زﻣﯿﻦ ﺷﻬﺮي، از ﺑﯿﻦ رﻓﺘﻦ زﻣﯿﻦﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺣﻮﻣﻪ ﺷﻬﺮ، ﺿﻌﻒ ﺧﺪﻣﺎت رﺳﺎﻧﯽ در داﺧﻞ ﺷﻬﺮ را در ﭘﯽداﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺟﺪي ﺑﻪ ﺣﻞ ﻣﺸﮑﻼت ﺷﻬﺮي در داﺧﻞ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎي ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮي راﻫﮑﺎر در زﻣﯿﻦﻫﺎي ﺣﻮﻣﻪ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺷﺪ. ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي رﺷﺪ ﻫﻮﺷﻤﻨﺪ در ﺷﻬﺮ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد آﯾﻨﺪه-ﻧﮕﺎري ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺒﻨﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺟﻤﻊ آوري اﻃﻼﻋﺎت از دو روش ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪاي و ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ، 37 ﺷﺎﺧﺺ در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﻣﯿﮏﻣﮏ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ و اﺛﺮات ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ، ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ و ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻫﺮﮐﺪام ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﭘﯿﺸﺮاﻧﻬﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج و ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ وارد ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ وﯾﺰارد ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ.ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪ دو ﻧﻮع ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ )ﻗﻮي و ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ( ﺑﺮاي رﺷﺪ ﻫﻮﺷﻤﻨﺪ ﺷﻬﺮ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺎن 12ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺑﻮدهاﻧﺪ. ﮐﻪ 8 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺎ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب و ارزش ﮐﻠﯽ 76 ﺗﺎ 63، دو ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ اﯾﺴﺘﺎ ﺑﺎ ارزشﮐﻠﯽ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ)19 و 52( و در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ دو ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ ﮐﻪ داراي ارزش ﻫﺎي 17 و 80 ﺑﻮدهاﻧﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺎن اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ 12 ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از دﯾﮕﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ و در ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ دوم ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي 1 ﺗﺎ 8 ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي از ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ 12 و ﮔﺮاﯾﺶ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي 8-1 ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدﻫﺎي اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ.

Growth and development of the city, followed by an increase in urban population over the past few decades, such as misuse of land, slum spread and urban fungus growth, dispersed zinc, inadequate urban land allocation, loss of suburban farmland, weakness Provides in-town services. These issues gave serious consideration to solving urban problems within the city rather than seeking solutions in the suburbs. The purpose of this paper is to explain the smart growth indicators in Urmia city with a foresight approach. Accordingly, two methods of library and field research have been used to collect information. For analysis, 37 indices have been evaluated in the MIMC environment and the direct, indirect and performance effects of each have been identified and finally key proponents have been extracted in this software environment and entered into the Wizard Scenario for scenario analysis and extraction.The results show that there are two types of scenarios (strong and probable) for smart growth in Urmia. There have been 12 possible scenarios. There are 8 scenarios with optimal status and 76 to 63 overall value, two static scenarios with low overall value (19 and 52) and finally two critical scenarios that have values of 17 and 80. In this case, the critical scenario is 12 more likely to be realized than the other scenarios and is ranked second to scenarios 1-8. Finally, suggestions are made to prevent the realization of scenario 12 and the tendency towards scenarios 1-8.