تعامل نظريه هاي توازن و سلسله مراتبي در تبيين ناقرينگي سرعت تعديل وجه نقد

Interaction of Trade-off and Pecking order Theories in Explaining the Asymmetry of Cash Adjustment Speed

ﻫﺪف: ﻧﮕﻬﺪاري ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻏﯿﺮﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ از وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ، آﺛﺎر ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺷﺮﮐﺖ درﺑﺮ دارد. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﻣﺪﯾﺮان ﯾﮏ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ را ﺑﺮاي وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ، ﻫﺪفﮔﺬاري ﮐﺮده و ﺑﺮاي ﻧﯿﻞ ﺑﻪ آن ﻫﺪف ﻣﯽﮐﻮﺷﻨﺪ. وﻟﯽ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫﺪف، ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﯿّﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ واﻗﻌﯽ )ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﯾﺎ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦﺗﺮ از ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫﺪف( و ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﻪ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺴﺮي ﯾﺎ ﻓﺰوﻧﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ، واﺑﺴﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، اراﺋﻪ ﺷﻮاﻫﺪي در ﺧﺼﻮص ﻧﺎﻗﺮﯾﻨﮕﯽ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ اﺳﺖ. روش: در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺑﺎ ﺑﮑﺎرﮔﯿﺮي دادهﻫﺎي 3764 ﺳﺎل ـ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ از واﺣﺪﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺎري ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان در ﺑﺎزه 1381-1398 در ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﭘﻨﻞ ﻧﺎﻣﺘﻮازن و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﮔﺸﺘﺎورﻫﺎي ﺗﻌﻤﯿﻢﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻤﯽ، ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، آزﻣﻮن ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ در ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ واﺣﺪﻫﺎ، ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪي ﺑﯿﺶ از ﺳﻄﺢ ﻫﺪف ﻧﮕﻬﺪاري ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ ﯾﺎ درﮔﯿﺮ ﮐﺴﺮي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ، ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮي دارﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﮑﻤﯿﻠﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﯾﮑﺮد ﮔﺸﺘﺎورﻫﺎي ﺗﻌﻤﯿﻢﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺗﻔﺎﺿﻞﮔﯿﺮيﺷﺪه و ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻔﯽ ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت از ﮐﺴﺮي و ﻓﺰوﻧﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ، ﺑﺎ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي اﺻﻠﯽ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺳﺎزﮔﺎري دارد. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻣﺆﯾﺪ آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻧﮕﻬﺪاري وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ ﺑﯿﺶ از ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫﺪف )در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﮐﺴﺮي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ(، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻧﮕﻬﺪاري وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫﺪف )در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻓﺰوﻧﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ( اﺳﺖ و اﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪي ﺑﯿﺶ از ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫﺪف دارﻧﺪ )در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﮐﺴﺮي ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺮﻧﺪ(، ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮي داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻧﻮﻋﯽ ﻧﺎﻗﺮﯾﻨﮕﯽ در ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ اﺳﺖ، ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﺗﻮازن و ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺒﯽ را در ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﻧﺎﻗﺮﯾﻨﮕﯽ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ، آﺷﮑﺎر ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ. داﻧﺶاﻓﺰاﯾﯽ: ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺳﻌﯽ ﻧﻤﻮده اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ اراﺋﻪ ﺷﻮاﻫﺪ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﯽ، ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﻫﺎي ﻣﻄﺮح در ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﺗﻮازن و ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮاﺗﺒﯽ درﺧﺼﻮص ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ را آﺷﮑﺎر ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ادﺑﯿﺎت و ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ.

Maintaining non-optimal amounts of cash has negative financial consequences for a firm. Therefore, managers target an optimal ratio for cash and strive to achieve that target. However, the speed of adjustment towards the target depends on the position of the actual cash ratio (higher or lower than the target) and the firm’s exposure to the financial deficit and surplus. The purpose of this study is to provide evidence for the asymmetry of adjustment speed. Methods: In this research, using 3764 firm-years data from firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2002-2019 in the form of an unbalanced panel data and using the dynamic panel data method with the system generalized method of moment (System-GMM), the research hypotheses have been tested. Results: Findings show that compared with other firms, firms that hold cash above the target level or are in financial deficit, have a higher speed of adjustment. The supplementary results using difference generalized method of moment (Difference GMM), and a different definition to determine the financial deficit and surplus are consistent with the main findings Conclusion: The results confirm that the cost of holding cash more than the target (in deficit firms) is more than the cost of maintaining cash less than the target (in surplus firms) and this causes firms that hold cash more than the target (in a state of financial deficit) to have a faster adjustment speed. The research findings which indicate a kind of asymmetry in cash adjustment speed reveal the interaction of Trade-off and Pecking order theories in explaining the above asymmetry. Contribution: By providing empirical evidence, this study has tried to reveal the interaction between the Trade-off and Pecking order theories in explaining the above asymmetry. The research findings contribute to the literature and theories on cash holding.