شناسايي ظرفيت‌هاي صنعتي ايران با استفاده از مدل پيچيدگي اقتصادي با تأكيد بر بازار صادراتي كشورهاي همسايه منتخب

Identifying Iran's Industrial Capabilities by Using Economic Complexity Model: Focusing on Export Markets of Selected Neighboring Countries

ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﻀــﺎي ﻣﺤﺼــﻮﻟﯽ در اﯾﺮان ﻧﺸــﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ از ﻣﯿﺎن 1259 ﮐﺪ ﮐﺎﻻي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در ﺳــﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮓ ﺷــﺪه ﺷــﻤﺎرهﮔﺬاري ﮐﺎﻻي 4 رﻗﻤﯽ Harmonized System HS 45 ﮐﺪ ﮐﺎﻻ وﺟﻮد دارد ﮐﻪ ﺣﺮﮐﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳـــﻤﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ﺻـــﺎدرات آنﻫﺎ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻬﺒﻮد درﺟﻪ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان ﮐﻤﮏ ﮐﻨﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎي 9 ﮐﺸـــﻮر ﻫﻤﺴـــﺎﯾﻪ اﯾﺮان 25 ﮐﺪ ﮐﺎﻻ در ﺑﺎزار اﯾﻦ ﮐﺸـــﻮرﻫﺎ ﺷــﻨﺎﺳــﺎﯾﯽ ﺷــﺪه اﺳــﺖ ﮐﻪ ﭘﺲ از ﺣﺬف آن دﺳــﺘﻪ از ﮐﺪ ﮐﺎﻻﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ در اﯾﺮان ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﻤﯽﺷﻮﻧﺪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ آن دﺳﺘﻪ از ﮐﺎﻻﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ اﯾﺮان در ﺣﺎل ﺣﺎﺿﺮ اﻗﺪام ﺑﻪ ﺻﺎدرات آنﻫﺎ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ، 20 ﮐﺪ ﮐﺎﻻ ﺑﺎﻗﯽ ﻣﯽﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ﺻـــﺎدرات اﯾﻦ ﮐﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻬﺒﻮد درﺟﻪ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽ اﻗﺘﺼـﺎدي اﯾﺮان ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﺑﺎزاري 12 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﺎرد دﻻري دارﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮض ﺗﺼــﺎﺣﺐ ﻧﯿﻤﯽ از اﯾﻦ ﺑﺎزار، اﯾﻦ اﺗﻔﺎق ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ رﺷــﺪ 1,3 درﺻــﺪي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ اﯾﺮان ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ.

One of the newest and most advanced models to identify industries and products that should be targeted by the government of developing countries, is presented by Ricardo Hausmann. This model known as the economic complexity model measures the economic complexity index of each country's economy through a reciprocal relationship. This model shows that countries must produce a variety of products with a high degree of complexity and in close proximity of products which they have a comparative advantage in producing them, in order to become industrialized and developed. Analyzing Iran’s product space shows that out of 1259 goods in the 4-digit HS classification system, there are 45 commodities that producing these commodities improve the complexity of Iran's economy. Another part of any strategy to support selected industries, is to use the capability of international markets to export selected goods; by Considering the importance of the markets of 9 neighboring countries of Iran and after identifying their need for 25 commodities, there are 20 commodities with a market size of $12 billion, By Assuming the ability of Iran to capture half of this market, it will lead to a 1.3 percent growth in Iran's GDP.