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Balance Sheet Analysis of the Effects of Central Bank Digital Money Substitution Instead of Bank Deposits on the Balance Sheet of Economic Agents

در ﻧﻈﺎم ﭘﻮﻟﯽ ﮐﻨﻮﻧﯽ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺑﺎﻧﮑﺪاري ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺟﺰﯾﯽ، ﭘﻮل ﯾﮏ ﻧﻮع ﺑﺪﻫﯽ ا ﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻮ ﺳﻂ ﺑﺎﻧﮏ ﻣﺮﮐﺰي و ﺑﺎﻧﮏﻫﺎ در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪاي ﺧﻠﻖ ﻣﯽﺷــﻮد. ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮل در ﻧﻈﺎم ﺑﺎﻧﮑﺪاري ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺟﺰﯾﯽ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ اﯾﺠﺎد و ﯾﺎ ﺗﺸــﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻌﻀــﻼت ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ورﺷــﮑﺴــﺘﮕﯽ ﻧﻘﺪي و ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪاي ﺑﺎﻧﮏﻫﺎ ﻣﯽﺷــﻮد. ﯾﮑﯽ از راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﺣﻞ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﻌﻀــﻼﺗﯽ، ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺣﮑﻤﺮاﻧﯽ ﭘﻮل ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﯽ اﺳــﺖ ﮐﻪ اﻣﮑﺎن ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮل ﺑﺎﻧﮑﯽ ﻣﻨﺘﻔﯽ ﺷــﻮد )ﻧﻈﺎم ذﺧﯿﺮه 100 درﺻــﺪ(. از ﻃﺮف دﯾﮕﺮ در ﭼﻨﺪ ﺳﺎﻟﻪ اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﺎﻧﮏﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﮐﺰي درﺻﺪد اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﭘﻮل دﯾﺠﯿﺘﺎل ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮد ﺑﺮآﻣﺪهاﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺤﻮﻻت ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﯽ را در ﻧﻈﺎم ﭘﻮﻟﯽ ﻓﻌﻠﯽ رﻗﻢ ﻣﯽ زﻧﺪ. ﻫﺪف ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﺎﺿـــﺮ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪ اي ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮات ﺟﺎﻧﺸــﯿﻨﯽ ﭘﻮل دﯾﺠﯿﺘﺎل ﺑﺎﻧﮏ ﻣﺮﮐﺰي ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎي ﺳــﭙﺮدهﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻧﮑﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﮐﻨﺸــﮕﺮان اﻗﺘﺼــﺎدي اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ -ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ و ﺑ ﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ اﺳﻨﺎد ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪ اي از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪ اي CBDC ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﮐﻨﺸﮕﺮان اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، ﻧﺸﺎن داده ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ CBDC در ﺳﺒﺪ ﻣﺮدم در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد و ﺟﺎﻧﺸﯿﻦ ﺷﺪن آن ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎي ﺳﭙﺮده ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻧﮑﯽ، ﻗﺪرت ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮل ﺑﺎﻧﮏﻫﺎ را ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از آن ا ﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ در ﺻﻮرﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ CBDC ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﯿﻦ ﺳﭙﺮده ﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻧﮑﯽ ﺷــﻮد، ﻗﺪرت ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮل ﺑﺎﻧﮏﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳــﻤﺖ ﺻــﻔﺮ ﻣﯿﻞ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ. CBDC اﻣﮑﺎن اﯾﺠﺎد ﻧﻈﺎم ﭘﻮﻟﯽ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ذﺧﯿﺮه ﮐﺎﻣﻞ را ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻌﻀــﻼت ﺧﻠﻖ ﭘﻮل ﺑﺎﻧﮑﯽ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺑﺎﻻي ورﺷﮑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻧﻘﺪي )ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ﯾﮑﺴﺎن ﻧﺒﻮدن رﯾﺴﮏ دو ﻃﺮف ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻧﮏﻫﺎ( و ورﺷﮑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪ اي )ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ﻗﺪرت ﺑﺎﻧﮏﻫﺎ ﺑﺮاي اﻣﻬﺎل ﺗﺴﻬﯿﻼت ﻏﯿﺮﺟﺎري( را ﻣﻨﺘﻔﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﮐﺮد.

In the current monetary system, money is a type of debt that is created by the central bank and Commercial banks in the context of balance sheet operations. Creating money in a Fractional reserve banking system Causes or exacerbates various problems, including bankruptcy and bankrun. One way to solve such problems is to change the system of money governance to a situation where the possibility of creating bank money is eliminated (100% reserve system). Analysis of CBDC balance sheets based on the balance sheets of economic agents shows that increasing The share of CBDC in the people's portfolio in the economy and replacing it with bank deposits reduces the Money creation power of banks. If the CBDC completely replaces bank deposits, the Money creation power of banks will be reduced to zero. In fact, the CBDC enables the establishment of a full reserve-based monetary system that eliminates the problems of bank money creation, including the high probability of liquidity crisis (due to unequal risk on both sides of the bank balance sheet) and balance sheet insolvency (due to banks' ability for non performing loans forbearance).