بررسي تأثير توسعه انساني بر توليد ناخالص داخلي با تأكيد بر نقش تعديل‌گر پيشرفت اجتماعي

Investigating the effect of human development on GDP with emphasis on the moderating role of social progress

ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﭘﯿﺶ رو ﺿﺮورت ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺤﻮه ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ دﺳﺘﻪ از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ را ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺎن ﻣﯽ ﺳﺎزد. آﻣﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ در 104 ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺮﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ از ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﻠﻞ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و ﺑﺎﻧﮏ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ در ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي 2014 ﺗﺎ 2018 ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺬﮐﻮر ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ از روش داده ﻫﺎي ﺗﺎﺑﻠﻮﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار Eviews10 ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺮآورد داده ﻫﺎي ﺗﺎﺑﻠﻮﯾﯽ در ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮردﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ در دو ﮔﺮوه از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ درآﻣﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﻻ و ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ درآﻣﺪ ﺑﺎﻻ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ و ﻣﻌﻨﯽ دار؛ اﺛﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ از ﮐﺎﻧﺎل ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ در ﻫﺮ ﭼﻬﺎر ﮔﺮوه از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار؛ درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ، ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ و اﺷﺘﻐﺎل ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺑﺎ درآﻣﺪ ﺑﺎﻻ دارد. ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﭘﻞ ارﺗﺒﺎﻃﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻓﺰاﯾﻨﺪه اي در اﻧﺘﻘﺎل اﺛﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ؛ ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ، ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ وﯾﮋه اي ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﻮح ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﺳﻄﻮح ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي اﺳﺎﺳﯽ اﻧﺴﺎن، زﯾﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻫﺎي رﻓﺎه، ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﻫﺎ در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺷﻮد.

Leading research highlights the need to examine the impact of social progress on GDP in these countries. Statistics on the Human Development Index, the Social Progress Index, Capital and Employment, as well as GDP per capita in 104 countries are taken from the United Nations Development Program, the Social Progress Index and the World Bank from 2014 to 2018, respectively. To investigate the effect of these variables on GDP, panel data method has been analyzed using Eviews10 software. The results of estimating panel data in the studied years showed that the impact of human development on GDP in two groups of higher than average income and high income countries is increasing and significant; The effect of human development from the channel of social progress to GDP in all four groups of countries has an increasing and significant effect; Finally, capital and employment have a significant increase in GDP per capita in high income countries. Social progress as a bridge can play an increasing role in transmitting the effect of human development to GDP. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the levels of social progress to strengthen the levels of basic human needs, foundation of wellbeing, opportunities in countries.