ﻧﻘﺶ ورزش ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﺮم و ﺟﻨﺎﯾﺎت در اﯾﺮان 1391-1374

The role of sport in the crime rate in Iran (1374-1391)

ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ورزش، ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ورزش و ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﺑﺪﻧﯽ ﯾﮏ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﻬﻤﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري ﺑﺮ ﺟﺮم و ﺟﻨﺎﯾﺎت را دارا ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. از اﯾﻦ رو ﻫﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﻘﺶ ورزش ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﺮم و ﺟﻨﺎﯾﺎت در اﯾﺮان ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1391 – 1374 ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. روش ﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ: ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻫﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، از روش اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﺳﻨﺠﯽ و ﻣﺪل ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻟﯽ )OLS( و ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار ( Eviews اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از وزارت ورزش و ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن، ﺳﺎﻟﻨﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در درﮔﺎه ﻣﻠﯽ آﻣﺎر، دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در درﮔﺎه ﺑﺎﻧﮏ ﻣﺮﮐﺰي ﺟﻤﻬﻮري اﺳﻼﻣﯽ اﯾﺮان و ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﺛﺒﺖ اﺣﻮال ﮐﺸﻮر اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺨﻤﯿﻦ ﻣﺪل، ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻣﺨﺎرج ورزﺷﯽ دوﻟﺖ و ﺧﺎﻧﻮار اﺛﺮي ﻣﻨﻔﯽ و ﻣﻌﻨﯽدار ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ )0/278953- ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان اﻧﻮاع ﺳﺮﻗﺖﻫﺎ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻟﮕﺎرﯾﺘﻤﯽ ﺑﻮدن اﻟﮕﻮ، اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ 1 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ورزﺷﯽ دوﻟﺖ و ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮض ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮدن ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﻨﺘﺮﻟﯽ، ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ اﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ 0/28- درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ در ﻣﯿﺰان اﻧﻮاع ﺳﺮﻗﺖﻫﺎ، ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺎرج ورزﺷﯽ دوﻟﺖ و ﺧﺎﻧﻮار اﺛﺮي ﻣﻨﻔﯽ و ﻣﻌﻨﯽدار ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ )9/414676-( ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان اﻧﻮاع ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ و ﺳﺮﻗﺖﻫﺎ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﮑﻞ اوﻟﯿﻪ ﺳﺮيﻫﺎ )دادهﻫﺎ( در اﻟﮕﻮ، اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ 1 واﺣﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ورزﺷﯽ دوﻟﺖ و ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮض ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻮدن ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﻨﺘﺮﻟﯽ، ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ اﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ 9/41- واﺣﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ در ﻣﯿﺰان اﻧﻮاع ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ و ﺳﺮﻗﺖﻫﺎ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﮐﻠﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﺨﺎرج ورزﺷﯽ دوﻟﺖ و ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ در ﮐﺸﻮر ﻣﯽﺷﻮد.

Research studies in the field of sports, indicating that exercise is a very important factor that it is capable of influencing crime. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the role of sport in crime rate in Iran the years 1374 - 1391. Methodology: In order to meet the objective of the research, econometrics and model of ordinary least squares (OLS) and Eviews (8) software are used. The data for this research is collected from the Ministry of Youth and Sports, yearbooks of the Institute National Statistic, data on the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the registration port. Results: The results showed a significant and negative effect on household spending and government sports coefficients (-0/278953) on the types of robberies that According to logarithmic nature of the model, this result means that a 1 percent increase in government spending sports and family with control other variables constant, is equal to -0/28% reduction in the prevalence of robberies, also Sports government spending and household have significant negative effects with the coefficient (-9/414676) on the types of crimes and robberies which it is according to the original series (data) in the model, this result means that 1 unit increase in government spending sports and family with control other variables constant is equal to -9/41 of the reduction in the amount of crime and robberies. Conclusion: Overall the results indicate that increases government and households spending Sports to reduce crime rates in the country.