رتبه‌بندي عوامل موثر بر ابزارهاي نظارتي بانك مركزي بر ثبات مالي در نظام بانكي ايران

Ranking the Factors Effecting the Regulatory Instruments of the Central Bank of Iran for Financial Stability in Iran's Banking System

هدف از مقاله حاضر رتبه بندي عوامل موثر بر ابزارهاي نظارتي بانك مركزي بر ثبات مالي در نظام بانكي ايران است. روش تحقيق، توصيفي – پيمايشي و جمع آوري اطلاعات به صورت مصاحبه با خبرگان است. روايي و پايايي ابزار پژوهش از طريق اساتيد بازاريابي و خبرگان مورد تاييد قرار گرفت. تجزيه و تحليل داده‌ها با نرم‌افزارهاي EViews و Lisrel انجام گرفت. در رتبه‌بندي شاخص‌ها از روش تاپسيس فازي استفاده شد. در رتبه‌بندي عامل‌هاي موثر بر ثبات مالي بانك مركزي با استفاده از تاپسيس فازي، عوامل ذخاير نقدي به دارايي-هاي بانك(CR)، كفايت سرمايه(AC)، نسبت مطالبات غيرجاري به كل تسهيلات پرداختي(NP)، نقدينگي(LY)، نرخ واقعي ارز (RER)، اعتبارداخلي پرداخت شده به بخش خصوصي توسط بانك‌ها(DCP)، نسبت بدهي به دارايي(DA) رتبه‌هاي1 تا 7 را به خود اختصاص دادند. نتايج پژوهش نشان داد كه ثبات مالي نظام بانكي تحت تاثير رشد توليد ناخالص داخلي از سال 1370 الي 1380 داراي نوسانات ثابتي بوده ولي رشد توليدات ناخالص داخلي تاثير معناداري بر روي ثبات مالي نداشته است. در فواصل سال‌هاي مالي 1381 - 1396 ثبات مالي نظام بانكي داراي نوسانات بيشتري بوده است. همچنين ثبات مالي نظام بانكي تحت كسري بودجه در سال‌هاي 1370 - 1381 داراي نوسانات متعادلي بوده است. اما در سال‌هاي 1381 - 1393 تاثير معناداري بر روي ثبات مالي نظام بانكي گذاشته و در سال‌هاي ‌1393-1396 به‌طور فزاينده‌اي باعث بي ثباتي مالي نظام بانكي شده است. نتايج تحليل نشان داد نرخ تورم با تاثر زياد بر ثبات مالي نظام بانكي باعث بي ثبات ....

The present research aimed at ranking the factors effecting the regulatory instruments of the Central bank of Iran for financial stability in banking system of Iran. The analysis method is descriptive-surveying. Data were gathered through interviewing with the experts. Reliability and validity of the research instrument confirmed by marketing experts. Data were analyzed using EViews and Lisrel software. To rank the indices phase Topsis method was used. In ranking factors effecting financial stability of the Central Bank of Iran using phase TAPSIS, cash reserves factors to bank assets (CR), capital adequacy (AC), nonperforming loan (NPL), liquidity (LY), real exchange rate (PER), domestic credit paid to the private sector by banks (DCP), debt to asset ratio (DA) were ranked 1 to 7 respectively. The results showed that the financial stability of the banking system has had some stable fluctuations under the effects of GDP since 1991 to 2001, i.e, GDP growth haven’t had a significant effect on financial stability. The financial stability of banking system has been through more fluctuations between 1991 to 2002. Also, financial stability of the Central Bank had undergone through balanced fluctuations under budget deficit in 1992-2002, but the budget deficit has had a significant effect on financial stability of banking system since 2002 to 2014. And, it caused increasing financial instability of banking system since 2014 to 2017. The analysis results showed that inflation rate has had a serious effect on financial stability of banking system, causing financial instability through under study years 1991-2017. And, although money volume growth hasn’t had high fluctuations 1991-2006, but through 2006 to 2017 it has had high fluctuations as such that during the last 4 years the sharp gradient of financial stability of banking system has decreased.