شناسايي مهمترين مخاطرات طبيعي تأثيرگذار بر آسيب پذيري شهري نمونه موردي: شهر اردبيل

The Identification of Natural Hazards Effective in the Urban Vulnerability (Case Study: Ardabil City)

ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ: ﺟﻬﺖ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺳﮑﻮﻧﺘﮕﺎهﻫﺎ، ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﺨـﺎﻃﺮات ﻣﺤﯿﻄـﯽ ﺿـﺮورت دارد ﺗـﺎ ﺑـﺎ ﺗـﺎبآور ﻧﻤﻮدن ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻄﺮات و ﭘﯿﺶﮔﯿﺮي از وﻗﻮع آﻧﻬﺎ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﻻزم اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﻮد. ﻫﺪف: ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺷﻬﺮ اردﺑﯿﻞ اﺳﺖ. روشﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ: ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ از ﻟﺤﺎظ ﻫﺪف ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي و از ﻟﺤﺎظ ﻣﺎﻫﯿﺖ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ- ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ. روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از ﻧـﻮع ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒـﯽ و ﻣـﺪل ﻣﺘـﻮاﻟﯽ اﮐﺘﺸـﺎﻓﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎري ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، اﺳﺎﺗﯿﺪ و ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﺷﻬﺮ اردﺑﯿﻞ در اﯾﻦ زﻣﯿﻨﻪ اﺳﺖ. دادهﻫﺎي ﮐﯿﻔﯽ، ﺑﻪ روش ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﯿـﺮي ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨـﺪ، ﺗﻮﺳـﻂ 10 ﻧﻔـﺮ از اﺳﺎﺗﯿﺪ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻣﺤﻘﻖ اردﺑﯿﻠﯽ و دادهﻫﺎي ﮐﻤّﯽ، ﺑﻪ روش ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﮔﯿﺮي ﮔﻠﻮﻟﻪ ﺑﺮﻓﯽ، ﺗﻮﺳﻂ 200 ﻧﻔﺮ از ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎن ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﺑﺪﺳـﺖ آﻣـﺪ. ﺑـﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿـﻞ دادهﻫـﺎ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ از ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎري ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ وارﯾﺎﻧﺲ ﺑﺎ روش ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﺟﺰﺋﯽ )smart- pls( اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﻗﻠﻤﺮو ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ: ﻗﻠﻤﺮوي ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺷﻬﺮ اردﺑﯿﻞ اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ و ﮐﻤﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ 9 ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ )ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ( آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺷﻬﺮ اردﺑﯿﻞ را ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 0/824 ﺗﺒﯿـﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ. ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ آﻣﺎره t و ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﺴﯿﺮ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﺳﺮﻣﺎي ﺷﺪﯾﺪ و ﯾﺨﺒﻨﺪان، زﻟﺰﻟﻪ و ﺑﺎد و ﻃﻮﻓﺎن ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﮑﺎﯾﺖ از اﯾﻦ داد ﮐﻪ از ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ، ﺳﺮﻣﺎي ﺷﺪﯾﺪ و ﯾﺨﺒﻨﺪان، زﻟﺰﻟﻪ، ﺑﺎد و ﻃﻮﻓﺎن، ﺑـﺮف ﺷـﺪﯾﺪ و ﮔﺮﻣـﺎي ﺷﺪﯾﺪ، ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات اردﺑﯿﻞ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. در ﻫﻤﯿﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪﯾﺮان اﯾﻦ ﺣﻘﯿﻘـﺖ را روﺷـﻦ ﻣـﯽﺳـﺎزد ﮐـﻪ آﻧﻬـﺎ ﺑـﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺳـﺎﯾﯽ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﺑﺮ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ و ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪه آن ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ آﺳﯿﺐﭘﺬﯾﺮي ﺷﻬﺮ، ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﻨﺪ زﻣﯿﻨﻪ را ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺎبآوري ﺷـﻬﺮي ﻧﯿـﺰ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﺳﺎزﻧ

Introduction: In order to reduce the vulnerability of settlements, it is necessary to identify the most important hazards in the region, including environmental hazards, in order to take necessary measures by resuscitating cities and reducing hazards and preventing their occurrence. Objectives: The purpose of this article is to identify the most important natural hazards affecting the vulnerability of Ardabil. Methodology: The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. The research approach is a hybrid and sequential exploratory model. The statistical population of the research is professors and experts of Ardabil City in this field. Qualitative data were obtained by purposive sampling method by 10 professors of Mohaghegh Ardabili University and quantitative data were obtained by snowball sampling method by 200 relevant specialists. Analysis of variance was used to analyze the data and evaluate the effect of variables in SmartPLS software. Geographical Context: The geographical territory of the present study is the city of Ardabil. Result and Discussion: Qualitative and quantitative research findings showed that 9 research variables (natural hazards) explain the vulnerability of Ardabil city by 0.824. The highest t-statistic and the highest path coefficient are related to the variables of extreme cold and frost, earthquake, wind and storm hazards. Conclusion: The results showed that among the natural hazards, severe cold and frost, earthquake, wind and storm, heavy snow and extreme heat are the most important hazards in Ardabil. In this regard, this study clarifies by identifying and planning on natural hazards and its explanatory variables, in addition to reducing the vulnerability of the city, managers can also provide the basis for urban resilience.