ارزيابي عملكرد مدل‌هاي BNU-ESM ﻭ MIROC-ESM در گرمايش جهاني با نگرشي ﺑﺮ فراسنج‌هاي اقليمي و خشكسالي‌هاي آينده (مطالعه موردي :حوضه آبريز گرگان‌رود، استان گلستان)

Performance Evaluation of BNU-ESM and MIROC-ESM models in Global Warming with a view to Future Climatic Parameters and Droughts (Case study: Gorganrood Catchment, Golestan Province)

ﺩﺭ پژوهش ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﺮ فراسنج‌هاي اقليمي نظير ﺩﻣﺎ، ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﻭ ﺧﺸﻜﺴﺎﻟﻲﻫﺎي ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ حوضه آبريز گرگان‌رود با استفاده ﺯ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﻲ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﮔﺮﺩﺵ عمومي MIROC-ESM ﻭ BNU-ESM ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻪ ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ RCP 2.6، RCP4.5 ﻭ RCP8.5 ﺑﺮﺍي ﺩﻭ دوره آينده نزديك 2025 ﺗﺎ 2060 ﻭ دور 2061 ﺗﺎ 2095 مورد ارزيابي قرار گرفت، به‌گونه‌ايكه ﺧﺮﻭﺟﻲ ﻣﺪﻝ MIROC-ESM ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪﻝ SDSM ﻭ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﻲ ﻣﺪﻝ BNU-ESM ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺭﻳﺰﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ و ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ‌ﻫﺎي ﺁﻣﺎﺭي R2، RMSE ﻭ NSE ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ عملكرد دو ﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪ. جهت ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺧﺸﻜﺴﺎﻟﻲ نيز، ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ (SPI) ﻃﻲ دوره ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ (1961 ﺗﺎ 2020) ﻭ ﺩﻭ دوره آينده ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ سالانه ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ گرديد. نتايج نشان داد كه ﻣﺪﻝ SDSM ﺑﺮﺍي ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ فراسنج ﺩﻣﺎ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ، ﺩﺍﺭﺍي ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ مي‌باشد. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻣﺎ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ دوره آينده نزديك و دور نشان از تاثير گرمايش جهاني بر اقليم آينده حوضه آبريز گرگان‌رود داشته؛ به‌گونه‌ايكه ﺩﺭ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺪﻝ، ﺩﻣﺎي ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ كاهشي پيش‌بيني ﻣﻲشود. ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ SPI ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺑﺮﺍي ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺪﻝ MIROC-ESM ﻭ BNU-ESM ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ دوره آينده نزديك و دور ﺗﺤﺖ ﻫﺮ ﺳﻪ ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دوره ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺧﺸﻜﺴﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﻮﺍﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ. نتايج حاصل از ﻣﺪﻝهاي ﮔﺮﺩﺵ عمومي جو نشان داد كه ﻣﺪﻝ MIROC-ESM ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ، ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺩﻣﺎ ﻭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺸﻜﺴﺎﻟﻲ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪﻝ BNU-ESM برآورد ﻣﻲنمايد.

Humans have been using plants to treat diseases for thousands of years. In the recent century, extensive research has been done on medicinal herbs and drugs with natural ingredients have opened new horizons for the research community of physicians and pharmacists. Lorestan province is a mountainous region located in the west of Iran that Zagros Mountains cover all of it. Due to the diverse climatic conditions of Lorestan province, in this study application of medicinal plants in modern medicine are examined. Specimens of medicinal plants of Lorestan province were collected during three seasons of spring, summer and autumn in 2017-2019. They were identified using reliable sources. Then, questionnaires including information about age and literacy of indigenous urban and rural people, scientific and local name of the used plant, type of used plant organs, medicinal properties of these plants and consumption instruction by people were prepared. 100 people were interviewed. In this study, 91 medicinal plant species belonging to 44 families and 84 genera were identified. According to the results of this study, many medicinal plants of Lorestan Province are effective in treating indigenous people of the region and have pharmacological value. Ethnobotanical study of medicinal plants in this province is essential for achieving reasonable herbal remedies. Iran, due to its diverse geographical conditions and rich and unique vegetation, has the potential to develop ethnobotanical science and use of medicinal plants for medical science.