كليدواژه :
جمعيت شناختي , خدمت سربازي , روسيه , نيروهاي مسلح
چكيده فارسي :
ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﻧﻈﺎﻣﯽ روﺳﯿﻪ ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻨﻌﮑﺲﮐﻨﻨﺪه ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ روﺳﯿﻪ ﻧﯿﺴﺖ، اﮔﺮﭼﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ، ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ را ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ. وﺟﻮد ﮔﺮوهﻫﺎي ﮐﻮﭼﮑﺘﺮ ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 2012 – 2015 ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺟﻮاﻧﺎﻧﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي ﻓﺮاﺧﻮاﻧﺪه ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﺰرﮔﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﮔﺮوه ﺟﻮاﻧﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻪ در اواﺧﺮ دﻫﻪ 1980 ﺑﻪدﻧﯿﺎ آﻣﺪﻧﺪ، در ﺳﺎل 2010 ﺷﻤﺎر ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺑﺎﻻﯾﯽ از ﺳﺮﺑﺎزان وﻇﯿﻔﻪ )549/4 ﻫﺰار ﻧﻔﺮ( را ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ داد. ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎروري و ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎﻻي ﻣﺮگوﻣﯿﺮ در اواﯾﻞ دﻫﻪ 1990 ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 44 درﺻﺪي آﻣﺎر اﻓﺮاد ﺟﻮان در ﺳﺎل 2014 ﺷﺪ.
ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 2015 ﺗﺎ 2035، ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن ﻣﺸﻤﻮل ﺣﺪود 46 درﺻﺪ رﺷﺪ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ. در ﻫﻤﯿﻦ دوره، ﺗﻌﺪاد اﻓﺮاد 30 ﺗﺎ 34 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 50 درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﺑﺮآوردﻫﺎي ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻣﻠﻞ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﻃﺒﻖ آﻣﺎر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺎروري، اﻧﺪازه ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺑﻪﺧﺪﻣﺖﮔﯿﺮي اﻓﺮاد 20 ﺗﺎ 24 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﮐﻪ در ﺳﺎل 2015 در ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺧﻮد اﺳﺖ )4/578/000(، در ﺳﺎل 3/460/000 ،2020 ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و درﺳﺎل 2035 ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎً ﺑﻪ آﻣﺎر ﻗﺒﻠﯽ، 4/382/000 ﺑﺎز ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد. از ﺳﺎل 2018 - 2020، ارﺗﺶ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎل 1965 )زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻪ ﮐﻮﭼﮑﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﮔﺮوه از اﻓﺮاد ذﮐﻮر ﻣﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﺷﺪه در ﻃﻮل ﺟﻨﮓ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ دوم ﺑﻪ ﺳﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي رﺳﯿﺪه ﺑﻮدﻧﺪ( را ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﮐﻨﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﮔﺮوه ﮐﻪ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺷﻮروي ﻣﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ و در ﺳﺎل 2015 ﺣﺪود 25 ﺗﺎ 30 ﺳﺎل ﺳﻦ دارﻧﺪ، ﻫﺴﺘﻪ اﺻﻠﯽ ارﺗﺶ را در ﺳﺎل 2035 ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ داد. اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻦ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي اﯾﻦ ﮔﺮوه ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻧﺨﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي ﺑﺮاي ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﻠﺢ روﺳﯿﻪ آﺳﺎنﺗﺮ ﺷﻮد. ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن ﺷﻬﺮي )+53 درﺻﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 2015 و 2030(، در ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ )+35 درﺻﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 2015 و 2030( ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺳﺮﯾﻊﺗﺮ رﺷﺪ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﮐﺮد. اﻓﺮاد ذﮐﻮرﺗﺤﺼﯿﻞﮐﺮده اﻏﻠﺐ ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻠﯽ ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﻠﺢ ﻧﺪارﻧﺪ. ﻫﺴﺘﻪ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزان وﻇﯿﻔﻪ ﮐﻨﻮﻧﯽ از ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ و ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﻮﭼﮏ اﺳﺖ. روي ﻫﻢ رﻓﺘﻪ، ﺳﻦ، ﻣﺤﻞ ﺳﮑﻮﻧﺖ، ﺳﻄﺢ درآﻣﺪ و ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﺤﺼﯿﻼت ﻫﻤﮕﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻠﯽ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻧﮕﺮش اﻓﺮاد ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﻠﺢ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﯽﮔﺬارﻧﺪ. ﯾﮏ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ از ﻧﻈﺮﺳﻨﺠﯽﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻫﺮﭼﻪ اﻓﺮاد دﯾﺪﮔﺎه ﻣﺜﺒﺘﯽ در ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺧﻮد از رﯾﯿﺲﺟﻤﻬﻮر داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ، ﻧﮕﺮش ﺑﻬﺘﺮي درﺑﺎره ارﺗﺶ داﺷﺘﻪ و ﻫﺮﭼﻪ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮي ﺑﺎ ارﺗﺶ داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ، در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﯽﺗﻔﺎوتﺗﺮ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ.
اﺧﯿﺮاً ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺟﻮاﻧﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﯽ و ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ »ﻣﺸﻤﻮل وﻇﯿﻔﻪ« در ﺣﺎل اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ اﺳﺖ. در ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ، در دو دﻫﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ در روﺳﯿﻪ، ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن وﺧﯿﻢﺗﺮ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﺿﻌﯿﻒ اﻓﺮاد ﺟﻮان اﻣﺮوزي اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺑﯿﺶ از ﺣﺪ اﻟﮑﻞ از ﺳﻨﯿﻦ ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ ﺷﺮوع ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﺧﯿﺮ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﯿﺶ از ﺣﺪ اﻟﮑﻞ را ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ در ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎﻻي ﻣﺮگوﻣﯿﺮ در ﻣﯿﺎن ﺟﻮاﻧﺎن روﺳﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ.
اﯾﻦ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻪ روﺳﯿﻪ در ﺣﺎل ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺮاد ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ 18 ﺗﺎ 30 ﺳﺎل اﺟﺎزه ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪﻣﺪت ﭘﻨﺞ ﺳﺎل در ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﻠﺢ روﺳﯿﻪ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ، دال ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ رﻫﺒﺮي روﺳﯿﻪ دﯾﺪﮔﺎه واﻗﻊﺑﯿﻨﺎﻧﻪ از ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﯽ ﭘﯿﺶ روي ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﻣﺴﻠﺢ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﮐﻤﯿﺖ و ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزان وﻇﯿﻔﻪ دارد.
چكيده لاتين :
The composition of the Russian military forces does not wholly reflect the social composition of Russian society, although it does reflect the demographic changes. Smaller cohorts of young people in 2012–2015 resulted in a lower number of young men being drafted for military service. The biggest cohort of young people born at the end of the 1980s was clearly reflected in 2010 in a very high number of conscripts (549.4 thousand). A rapid drop in fertility rates and high mortality rates during the early 1990s resulted in a 44 per cent decrease in the number of annually drafted young people in 2014.
Between 2015 and 2035 the number of young men of conscription age will grow by around 46 per cent. During the same time period the number of 30- to 34-year-olds will decline by almost 50 per cent. According to UN estimates based on medium fertility, the size of the most significant recruitment resource of 20- to 24-year-olds will be highest in 2015 (4 million 587 thousand), will decline in 2020 (3 million 460 thousand), and will recover in 2035 almost to the same level as in 2015 (4 million 382 thousand). Starting from 2018–2020, the army may experience a lack of human resources comparable to 1965, when the smallest cohort of young people born during the Second World War reached military service age. The cohort born in the late Soviet years and who are 25-30 in 2015 will compose the core of the army reserves in 2035.
The growth of the conscription-age cohort will not make conscription campaigns any easier for the Russian armed forces. The number of urban young people will grow much faster (+53% change between 2015 and 2030) compared to rural young people (+35% change between 2015 and 2030). Young, well-educated urban males are the most reluctant to join the armed forces. The core of contemporary conscripts are from rural areas and small towns. All in all, age, place of residence, income level and level of attained education are all factors that influence respondents’ attitudes towards the armed forces. A cross-examination of opinion polls reveals that the more positive people are in their evaluations of the president, the more positive they are about the army in general and military service in particular; and the more contact they have with the army, the more neutral they are in their evaluation of it.
Recently, the number of young people who are fit for military service has been growing mostly due to legal measures and a new definition of “fit for service”. In fact, in the past two decades in Russia, young people’s health has been deteriorating. One of the most significant factors affecting the poor health condition of today's young people is excessive use of alcohol starting from an early age. Recent studies underline the significance of excessive alcohol consumption as an explanatory factor in the unusually high mortality rate among young Russian men.
The fact that Russia now allows foreigners aged 18–30 to serve five-year contracts in the Russian armed forces indicates that the Russian leadership has a realistic view of the demographic problem facing the armed forces in terms of the quantity and quality of conscripts.
