ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻮل اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺎرآﻓﺮﯾﻨﯽ ﻣﻬﻤﺎنﻧﻮازي و ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ: ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺑﻨﺪر اﻧﺰﻟﯽ

Explaining driving forces affecting the development of the hospitality and tourism entrepreneurship ecosystem (Case study: Bandar Anzali city)

ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺗﺤﻮﻻت آﯾﻨﺪه و ﯾﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ آﯾﻨﺪه ﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺶ ِ ِ رو ﺑﺮاي ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮان و ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮان ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﭘﺮ ﺟﺎذﺑﻪ اﺳﺖ. اﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ اﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﻧﻤﯽﺗﻮان ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ و ﺣﺎل ﺑﺮ ﺗﺤﻮﻻت آﯾﻨﺪه اﺷﺮاف داﺷﺖ، ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﺣﺎل، ﻣﯽﺗﻮان آﯾﻨﺪه ر ا ﺗﺨﻤﯿﻦ زد و در ﻣﻮرد آن ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮﺳﺎزي ﻧﻤﻮد. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده اﻧﺒﺎﺷﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ، اﻗﺘﻀﺎﺋﺎت اﻣﺮوز و ﭼﺸﻢ اﻧﺪاز آﯾﻨﺪه ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان ﺑﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ و ﺣﺎل و ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮﺳﺎزي آﯾﻨﺪه ﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه و آﺷﻮﺑﻨﺎك ﭘﺮداﺧﺖ. اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﻧﯿﺎزﻣﻨﺪ اﺗﺨﺎذ روش ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﯽ اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺘﻮان در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه و ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮد ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎ، ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎ و ﻧﺤﻮه ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد آﻧﻬﺎ را ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻧﻤﻮد. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ، ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ روﺷﯽ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ – ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ و ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد اﮐﺘﺸﺎﻓﯽ آﯾﻨﺪه ﭘﮋوﻫﯽ در ﭘﯽ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎﯾﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ در آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﺮ ﺗﺤﻮل اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺎرآﻓﺮﯾﻨﯽ ﻣﻬﻤﺎنﻧﻮازي و ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺑﻨﺪر اﻧﺰﻟﯽ اﺛﺮﮔﺬار ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻮد. ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر، اﺑﺘﺪ ا ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﺑﺎ 25 ﻧﻔﺮ از ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎن و ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﻣﺴﻠﻂ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع و ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪ، ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎري و ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﻣﯿﮏﻣﮏ، رواﺑﻂ و ﻧﺤﻮه اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري و اﺛﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮي آﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ از ﻣﯿﺎن ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎي ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪه، ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ، ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ ﻃﺒﻘﻪ ﺧﻼق، ﺗﺴﻬﯿﻠﮕﺮي ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎ در ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎي ﮐﺎرآﻓﺮﯾﻨﯽ ﻣﻬﻤﺎنﻧﻮازي و ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي و ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻪ ﺿﻠﻊ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي، ﺑﻨﺎدر و درﯾﺎﻧﻮردي و ﺻﯿﺪ و ﺷﯿﻼت ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎن از اﺛﺮﮔﺬارﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎ و ﻫﻤﺮاﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ، ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺪ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖﻫﺎي ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي اﻧﺰﻟﯽ، ﺗﺤﻮل ذﻫﻨﯽ ﻣﺮدم و ﻣﺪﯾﺮان ﺣﻮل ﻣﺤﻮر ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي و ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺲ ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ و ﺗﺌﻮري ﭘﻨﺠﺮه ﺷﮑﺴﺘﻪ از اﺛﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎ در ﺗﺤﻮل آﺗﯽ اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺎرآﻓﺮﯾﻨﯽ ﻣﻬﻤﺎن ﻧﻮازي و ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي اﻧﺰﻟﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. در اﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ آﯾﻨﺪه اﻧﺰﻟﯽ و ﺧﻠﻖ ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮي ﻣﻄﻠﻮب از آن ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﭘﯿﺸﺮانﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺛﺮ اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪ

The prediction of future developments or the recognition of futures for researchers and decision makers is highly attractive. But it is impossible to estimate the future as past and present, however, the future can be estimated and expressed in the case. So that with the use of historical information, today issues and future prospects, we can study past, present and the probable futures in a complicated and turbulent situation. This requires a study of futures studies in order to be able to identify and analyze the uncertainties. In this regard, the present study with a descriptive - analytical approach and with the futures studies approach is seeking to identify the most important factors that will affect the modification of the hospitality and tourism entrepreneurial ecosystem of Bandar Anzali in the future. For this purpose, first using interviews with 25 experts and experts for identifying driving factors and then using structural analysis method and MICMAC software so the relationship and their effectiveness were determined. According to results, in this study, experts initially defined 39 variables to be considered in the analysis, these 39 variables were detected as primary variables and were analyzed by Micmac software. Study results showed that, destination management, attention to the capacity of the creative class, facilitation of institutions in the development of the entrepreneurial activity of hospitality and tourism entrepreneurship, and attention to the three sides of tourism, ports and maritime fisheries at the same time, have the most effective ranks in driving factors and also alignment with demand, brand management based on Anzali tourism capacities, the mental modification of people and managers around the tourism axis and respect to the sense of place and the broken window theory are dependent or output in the future development of the hospitality and tourism Entrepreneurial Ecosystem of Bandar Anzali.