ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم اﯾﺮان : روﯾﮑﺮد ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ

Investigating the position of tourism industry in the Iranian stock market: A network theory approach

ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ ﮐﻮﭼﮏ و ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎ ﺟﻮان ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم، ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﭼﻨﺪﯾﻦ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﮔﺮوه ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري ﻣﯿﺮاث ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﯽ در اﯾﻦ ﮔﺮوه ﺟﺎي دارﻧﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﮔﺮوه ﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎظ ارزش ﺑﺎزار ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﮐﻮﭼﮑﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﮔﺮوهﻫﺎي ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. در ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم اﯾﺮان ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه، دو ﺷﺒﮑﻪ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﺑﻨﯿﺎدي، ﯾﮏ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ از 36 ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎ ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ ﻓﻌﺎل در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﮐﻪ وزن ﯾﺎلﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ آن ﻫﺎ را ﺑﻬﻢ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎ ﺟﺪول 36 ﺑﺨﺸﯽ داده- ﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. در ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﺎﻟﯽ، ﯾﮏ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻣﯿﺎن ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم اﯾﻦ 36 ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﮐﺰﯾﺖ، روﯾﮑﺮدي اراﯾﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﺗﺎ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي در ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم اﯾﺮان و ارﺗﺒﺎط آن ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﮔﺮدد. ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه از ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺑﻨﯿﺎدي، ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬاري را ﺑﺮ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي دارد ﮐﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ آن ﺗﺎﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﻮاد ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺮاي ﻫﺘﻞﻫﺎ و رﺳﺘﻮرانﻫﺎ اﺳﺖ. ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﭘﯿﻤﺎﻧﮑﺎري ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮﭘﺬﯾﺮي از ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي را دارد ﮐﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ آن ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﻤﺎﻧﮑﺎري ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎن ﻧﻈﯿﺮ ﻣﺮﻣﺖ ﺑﻨﺎﻫﺎي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه از ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﺎﻟﯽ، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ را ﺑﺎ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﭼﺎپ و اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات دارد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاران و ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻬﺎﻣﺪاران ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم در ﮔﺮوه ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻫﺮﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﻧﻘﺎط ﻣﻬﻢ و ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﺑﺎزار ﺳﻬﺎم ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﻨﺪ.

One of the small and young industries in the stock market is the tourism industry, which includes several companies, including the Cultural Heritage Investment Group. This group is known as one of the smallest groups in the stock market in terms of market value. In the present study, in order to investigate the position of the tourism industry in the Iran stock market, two networks are considered by using the theory of complex networks. First, with the approach of economic and fundamental analysis, a network of 36 selected industries of Iran economy is formed in accordance with the industries active in the stock market. In the next step, with the approach of technical analysis, a correlation network is formed among the stock market indices of these 36 industries. According to the results of the Fundamental Analysis Network, the food industry has the greatest impact on the tourism industry because of the supply of food for hotels and restaurants. The industrial contracting industry is the most affected by the tourism industry because of the impact of tourism development on building contracting activities such as the restoration of historic buildings. According to the results obtained from the technical analysis network, the stock market index of the tourism industry has the highest correlation with the stock market index of the printing and publishing industry. The results of this study can be used for policy makers and stock market shareholders in the tourism group to make appropriate decisions by observing any changes in key points of the stock market.