تعيين شاخص هاي ايجاد شهر جديد با استفاده از روش AHP و ارزيابي ميزان دستيابي به اهداف ايجاد شهرهاي جديد - مطالعه موردي: شهر جديد پرديس

Introducing various indicators for the development of new cities using AHP method and evaluating the achievement of goals assigned for new cities - Case study: the new city of Pardis

سياست ايجاد شهرهاي جديد در ايران باهدف مهار رشد بي‌رويه جمعيت و كنترل مهاجرت به شهرهاي بزرگ، از سال1364 تصويب شد. اهداف اصلي ايجاد شهرهاي جديد، توزيع متناسب جمعيت در منطقه شهري موردنظر، تمركززدايي از كلان‌شهر موردنظر، ارتقاء معيارهاي زيستي و خدماتي، جلوگيري از افزايش بي‌رويه قيمت زمين و مسكن مي‌باشد. در اين تحقيق به‌منظور تعيين شاخص‌هاي ايجاد شهر جديد به روش دلفي نظرات افراد خبره و كارشناسان بررسي و گردآوري شد و براي ارزيابي و وزن‌دهي معيارهاي به‌دست‌آمده از روش AHP استفاده شده است. براي اين كار مقادير به‌دست‌آمده را وارد نرم‌افزار Expert Choice 11 نموده و نتايج استخراج شد. در ادامه به‌صورت ميداني نظرات جامعه آماري نسبت به شاخص‌هايي كه بيشترين وزن را داشتند، با ابزار پرسشنامه و مصاحبه بررسي و در نرم‌افزار SPSS ميزان دستيابي به اهداف ايجاد شهرهاي جديد بررسي شد. در اين تحقيق مشخص شد كه اهداف كالبدي در ايجاد شهر جديد بيشترين وزن را نسبت به اهداف اقتصادي و جمعيتي داشته و اهداف اقتصادي در رتبه دوم قرار مي‌گيرد. در واقع با ايجاد زيرساخت‌هاي لازم در شهر جديد در اهداف كالبدي زمينه براي ايجاد اهداف اقتصادي مهيا خواهد شد. با توجه به يافته‌هاي تحقيق و نظر كارشناسان اين امر، درصورتي‌كه اهداف كالبدي و اقتصادي در هر شهر جديد به‌خوبي ايجاد شود و ساكنين از آن رضايت داشته باشند، اهداف جمعيتي به‌دنبال آن خواهد آمد و مي‌توان اميدوار بود كه اهداف ايجاد شهر جديد حاصل شود. نتايج به‌دست‌آمده در اين تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد كه شهر جديد پرديس تا حدودي توانسته است به اهداف طرح تفصيلي دست پيدا نموده، ولي ناكافي بودن زيرساخت‌هاي ايجادشده و عدم تناسب تعداد مشاغل و تعداد خانوار و عدم رونق و پويايي اقتصاد پايه در شهر، سبب ايجاد وابستگي به مشاغل خارج شهر شده و به‌نظر مي‌رسد نتوانسته است به اهداف افق طرح دست پيدا نمايد.

Introduction Urban managers and designers are looking for ways to solve problems caused by population growth and increasing migration to large cities. Designing new cities on the outskirts of metropolitan areas to accommodate their overflowing population is one of these solutions. However, new cities will face demographic and ecological crises caused by rapid growth and sudden influx of population without purposeful and organized control and proper infrastructure. Developing new cities was first approved in 1985 as a policy to curb the uncontrolled population growth and migration to large cities in Iran. New cities are mainly developed to ensure proportional distribution of population in the desired urban area, decentralization of the metropolis, improvement of living and service standards, and prevention of unreasonable increase in land and housing prices. In accordance with the policies assigned for the development of new cities and serious restrictions on further development of Tehran metropolitan area especially on agricultural lands, and due to the high slope of land in the northern parts of the city, high groundwater level and inadequate soil penetration resistance in the southern parts of the city, the city being earthquake-prone, existing restrictions on the development of infrastructure, facilities, transportation network and water supply, inversion phenomenon and limitations the ecosystem will face with more population, development of 5 new cities in the suburban area of Tehran was approved by authorities.    Materials & Methods Questionnaire and interview-based survey methods have been used in the present descriptive and analytical study. Data collection was performed using documentary and field study methods. Qualitative research techniques and content analysis tools have been used to select commonly used important research indicators from related literature. Following data collection from relevant organizations and institutions, a binary comparison questionnaire was prepared for each group of criteria. Using the Delphi method, urban planning experts were asked to comment on these tables. To evaluate and weight the obtained criteria, AHP method and Expert Choice 11 were used and the average was calculated in EXCEL. Pardis was selected as the case study to evaluate the opinions of new cities' residents. In survey and field study, tools such as questionnaires, interviews and observations were used to investigate the social and economic status in the new city of Pardis. A questionnaire was prepared based on Likert five-point scoring scale to determine the level of satisfaction in residents of Pardis city and to see whether in practice residents benefit more from the criteria assigned a higher weight by experts. The questionnaire was randomly distributed among 450 people and the results were evaluated in SPSS.   Results & Discussion Findings indicate that proximity to the capital, acceptable roads, fair weather condition, fewer traffic jams, and lower house prices are among the reasons for satisfaction of Pardis residents. However, previous residents of Tehran expect a living standard similar to living standards in this city so there is still a long road ahead for Pardis city to fulfil its basic plans of offering settlements and employment for at least a population of 200 thousands and obviating the need for daily commutes. Findings indicate that 40% of the employed population commute daily which results in dissatisfaction and an unnecessary increase in household monthly expenses while turning the city into an unproductive dormitory town. Based on what was analyzed theoretically in the present study, as well as our knowledge of the prosperity, dynamism, population, and civilization level of new cities, it seems that a technocratic view based on instrumental rationality in a rent-seeking economy has ultimately led into the present situation in which large-scale urban development projects have been reduced into a series of housing projects. Therefore, various social issues and the problem of identity and dynamism have become a major issue in the urban system of new cities. However, paying attention to vitality and sustainable social development, as well as reviewing and redefining patterns and procedures have made an important turning point and created the required capacity for urban development management and foresight which shall be expanded to reach a useful executive plan and develop its theoretical and practical basis.   Conclusion Results indicate that the new city of Pardis has achieved objectives of the detailed plan to some extent, but poor infrastructure, lack of sufficient number of employments for the households and lack of economic dynamism have created a city dependent on external employment and thus failing to achieve the utmost goals of the plan.