كليدواژه :
شاخص قيمت انرژي , كارايي انرژي , رهيافت نامتقارن , ايران
چكيده فارسي :
روند رو به رشد مصرف انرژي از يك‌سو و كميابي اين عامل از سويي ديگر منجر شده كه بررسي عوامل موثر بر كارايي مصرف انرژي از اهميت فراواني برخوردار باشد. از اين‌رو هدف از پژوهش حاضر آن است تا اثر افزايش‌ها و كاهش‌ها در قيمت حقيقي انرژي بر كارايي انرژي در ايران مورد بررسي قرار گيرد. براي اين منظور نخست شاخص قيمت حقيقي انرژي در سطح كل اقتصاد و سه بخشِ خانگي، تجاري و صنعت محاسبه شد. سپس با بكارگيري رهيافت خودتوضيحي با وقفه‌هاي توزيعي غيرخطي (نامتقارن) يك الگوي پايه بر مبناي كلِ اقتصاد و سه الگوي بخشي بر مبناي سه بخش مذكور برآورد شد. نتايج حاكي از آن است كه در بلندمدت، در سطح كلِ اقتصاد افزايش‌ها و كاهش‌ها در قيمت انرژي با اثري مستقيم بر كارايي انرژي همراه مي‌باشد. در بخش خانگي و صنعت كاهش‌ها در قيمت انرژي با اثري مستقيم بر كارايي انرژي همراه بوده ولي اثر معناداري از افزايش‌ها در قيمت انرژي بر كارايي انرژي در اين دو بخش مشاهده نشد. كارايي انرژي در بخش تجاري نيز از افزايش‌ها و كاهش‌ها در قيمت انرژي اثر معناداري نمي‌پذيرد. همچنين در سطح كل اقتصاد و در بخش‌هاي ياد شده نامتقارني در اثرگذاري قيمت انرژي تاييد شد.
چكيده لاتين :
The growing trend of energy consumption on the one hand and the scarcity of this factor on the other hand has led to the study of factors affecting the efficiency of energy consumption is of great importance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of increases and decreases in real energy prices on energy efficiency in Iran. For this purpose, first, the real energy price index was being calculated at the level of the whole economy and the three sectors of household, commercial and industry. Then, by using an autoregressive approach with nonlinear (asymmetric) distributive interruptions, a basic model based on the whole economy and three sectors models based on the three mentioned partial were estimated. The results show that in the long run, increases and decreases in energy prices had a direct effect on energy efficiency at the level of the whole economy. In the household and industry sectors, decreases in energy prices had a direct effect on energy efficiency, but there was no significant effect of increases in energy prices on energy efficiency in the two sectors. In the commercial sector, there was no significant effect of increases and decreases in energy prices on energy efficiency. Also, the effect was asymmetric confirmed at the level of the whole economy and in the mentioned sectors.
The growing trend of energy consumption on the one hand and the scarcity of this factor on the other hand has led to the study of factors affecting the efficiency of energy consumption is of great importance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of increases and decreases in real energy prices on energy efficiency in Iran. For this purpose, first, the real energy price index was being calculated at the level of the whole economy and the three sectors of household, commercial and industry. Then, by using an autoregressive approach with nonlinear (asymmetric) distributive interruptions, a basic model based on the whole economy and three sectors models based on the three mentioned partial were estimated. The results show that in the long run, increases and decreases in energy prices had a direct effect on energy efficiency at the level of the whole economy. In the household and industry sectors, decreases in energy prices had a direct effect on energy efficiency, but there was no significant effect of increases in energy prices on energy efficiency in the two sectors. In the commercial sector, there was no significant effect of increases and decreases in energy prices on energy efficiency. Also, the effect was asymmetric confirmed at the level of the whole economy and in the mentioned sectors.
