ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺗﺤﺖ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﮐﺸﺖ ﻓﺮاﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل WEAP

Water Shortage Management in Hirmand Catchment under Overseas Cultivation Strategy Using WEAP Model

ﭼﮑﯿﺪه ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮ آب در ﺟﻬﺎن ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺷﺪه ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب روﺑﺮو ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﮐﺸﺎورزي را ﺑﺎ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ روﺑﺮو ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ. ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﮐﻢ آب ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري در ﻣﺰارع ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﭘﺮآب ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﻣﯽﭘﺮدازﻧﺪ. اﯾﻦ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﺑﻪ ﮐﺸﺖ ﻓﺮاﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﻌﺮوف اﺳﺖ. ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ واﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﺑﻪ روﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻓﺮاﻣﺮزي ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ از ﮐﺸﻮر اﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎن ﺳﺮﭼﺸﻤﻪ ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻫﺪف ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﮐﺸﺖ ﻓﺮاﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ اﺑﺘﺪا ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل WEAP ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي و وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻓﻌﻠﯽ و آﯾﻨﺪه ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ و ﻣﺼﺎرف آب ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﮐﺸﺖ ﻓﺮاﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪ. ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﮔﻨﺪم، ﺟﻮ و ذرت ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻫﺪف ﮐﺸﺖ ﻓﺮاﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد در وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻓﻌﻠﯽ ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب 582/812 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در ﺳﺎل ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ اﺳﺖ و 41/16 درﺻﺪ از ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﻤﯽﺷﻮد. 72/42 در ﺻﺪ از ﮐﻞ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و 27/58 درﺻﺪ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ اﺳﺖ. ﭘﺲ از اﻋﻤﺎل اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﮐﺸﺖ فراسرزميني انتخاب شدند. نتايج نشان داد در وضعيت فعلي حوزه آبريز هيرمند با كمبود آب 812/582 ميليون مترمكعب در سال مواجه است و 16/41 درصد از تقاضاي آب در حوزه آبريز هيرمند تأمين نمي‌شود. 42/72 در صد از كل كمبود آب در حوزه آبريز هيرمند مربوط به بخش كشاورزي و 58/27 درصد مربوط به بخش محيط‌زيست است. پس از اعمال استراتژي كشت فراسرزميني كمبود آب در بخش كشاورزي 93/89درصد كاهش مي‌يابد و از 364.524 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ ﻧﯿﺰ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب 95/19 درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ و از 219/911 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در ﺳﺎل ﺑﻪ 10/570ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در ﺳﺎل ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ. اﻋﻤﺎل اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﮐﺸﺖ ﻓﺮاﺳﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺠﺪد ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺮﯾﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.

The uneven distribution of water in the world has caused many countries to face water shortages. The lack of water has made the production of agricultural products a challenge. Water-scarce countries invest in the farms of water-rich countries as a strategy to provide needed agricultural products. This strategy is known as extraterritorial cultivation. The Hirmand watershed is facing limited water resources due to its dependence on the Hirmand transboundary stream from Afghanistan. In this research, the aim is to simulate the strategy of extraterritorial cultivation of agricultural products in order to manage water shortage in the Hirmand catchment area. In this regard, the Hirmand watershed was modeled using the WEAP model, and the current and future status of water resources and uses were simulated. Then the extraterritorial cultivation strategy was simulated as a scenario. Wheat, barley, and corn products were selected as the target of extraterritorial cultivation. The results showed that in the current situation, the Hirmand catchment area faces a water shortage of 582.812 million cubic meters per year, and 41.16% of the water demand in the Hirmand catchment area is not met. 72.42 percent of the total water shortage in the Hirmand catchment area is related to the agricultural sector, and 27.58 percent is related to the environmental sector. After applying the extraterritorial cultivation strategy, the water shortage in the agricultural sector is reduced by 93.89% and reaches from 364.524 million cubic meters per year to 22.242 million cubic meters. In the environmental sector, the water shortage will decrease by 95.19% from 219.911 million cubic meters per year to 10.570 million cubic meters per year. Applying the extraterritorial farming strategy has redistributed water resources in the Hirmand catchment area.