پديد آورندگان :
ﻧﺠﻔﯽ، ﺳﺠﺎد داﻧﺸﮕﺎه آزاد اﺳﻼﻣﯽ واﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻮم و ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت - ﮔﺮوه ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ و آب، ﺗﻬﺮان، اﯾﺮان , ﺷﺮاﻓﺘﯽ، اﺣﻤﺪ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه آزاد اﺳﻼﻣﯽ واﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻮم و ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت - ﮔﺮوه ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ و آب، ﺗﻬﺮان، اﯾﺮان , ﮐﺎردان ﻣﻘﺪم، ﺣﻤﯿﺪ ﻣﻮﺳﺴﻪ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت آب - وزارت ﻧﯿﺮو، ﺗﻬﺮان، اﯾﺮان
كليدواژه :
آﺑﺨﻮان ﺳﺎﺣﻠﯽ , ﻣﺪل MODFLOW , ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ , آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ , ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي CMIP5
چكيده فارسي :
ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ اﻣﺮي اﺟﺘﻨﺎب ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ اﺳﺖ و ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮات ﻣﺘﻔﺎوﺗﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ دارد. ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ زﯾﺎد و ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﯿﻞﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻻي ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از ﻧﻈﺮ ﮐﺸﺎورزي، ﺷﺮب، ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و ﻏﯿﺮه ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮات ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺮاز آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ آﺑﺨﻮان ﺳﺎﺣﻠﯽ ﺳﺎري-ﻧﮑﺎ از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﯾﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ، در اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل MODFLOW، آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺮاي دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ )از ﻣﻬﺮ 1389 ﺗﺎ ﺷﻬﺮﯾﻮر 1393( واﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ 0/98 در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﺎﻧﺪﮔﺎر ﻧﺸﺎن از دﻗﺖ ﺑﺎﻻي ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﮐﻤﯽ آﺑﺨﻮان داﺷﺖ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﻪ واﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل LARS-WG ﺑﺮاي دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ )2019-2000( ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺮاي ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﺑﺎرش، دﻣﺎي ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ و دﻣﺎي ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺑﺎ 0/97 ، 0/99 و 0/99 ﺑﺪﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ دﻗﺖ ﺑﺎﻻي ﻣﺪل واﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪه ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در اداﻣﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﻣﺬﮐﻮر ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﮔﺰارش ﭘﻨﺠﻢ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ EC-EARTH ،MPI-ESM-MR ،MIROC5 ،HadGEM2-ES و GFDL-CM3 ﺗﺤﺖ 2 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 ﺑﺮاي دوره آﯾﻨﺪه )2040-2021( ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﮐﻠﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ در اﮐﺜﺮ ﻣﺎهﻫﺎي ﺳﺎل و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻧﺪك ﻣﻘﺪار دﻣﺎ در دوره آﺗﯽ ﺑﻮد. در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺮاز آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮔﺰارش ﭘﻨﺠﻢ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﺮاي دوره آﯾﻨﺪه )2040-2021( ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در 8 ﺣﺎﻟﺖ از 10 ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪه، ﺗﺮاز آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ در دوره آﺗﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ از اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان در ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﺻﻨﻌﺖ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮد.
چكيده لاتين :
Climate change is inevitable and has different effects on water resources
in each region. Due to the large population and high exploitation
potentials in terms of agriculture, drinking, industry, etc., the study of the
effects of climate change on the groundwater level of the Sari-Neka
coastal aquifer is of great importance. In this regard, initially using the
MODFLOW model, the quantitative model of groundwater in the region
for the base period (from October 2010 to September 2014) was
calibrated. The correlation coefficient of 0.98 in the unsteady state showed
the high accuracy of quantitative modeling of the aquifer. Then, the
LARS-WG model was calibrated for the base period (2000-2019). The
correlation coefficient for precipitation, minimum temperature, and
maximum temperature was 0.97, 0.99, and 0.99, respectively. Indicates
the high accuracy of the calibrated model. To simulate the above climate
parameters using CMIP5 models including HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5,
MPI-ESM-MR, EC-EARTH, and GFDL-CM3 under two emission
scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the next period (2040-2021) was paid.
In general, the results showed an increase in rainfall in most months of the
year and relative changes in temperature in the future. Finally, the impact
of climate change on the groundwater level of the region under different
models and scenarios of CMIP5 for the future (2021-2040) was
investigated. The results showed that in 8 of 10 cases, the groundwater
level in the future period will be higher than the base period, which can
be used for the development of agriculture and industry in the region.
