مؤسسه امريكن اينترپرايز و اثر آن بر سياست خارجي ايالات متحده آمريكا در قبال جمهوري اسلامي ايران

American Enterprise Institute and Its Effect on the US Foreign Policy Against Islamic Republic of Iran

ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪ آﻣﺮﯾﮑﻦ اﯾﻨﺘﺮﭘﺮاﯾﺰ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻧﺪﯾﺸﮑﺪهﻫﺎ در ﺷﮑﻞدﻫﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ دوﻟﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮريﺧﻮاه اﯾﺎﻻتﻣﺘﺤﺪه ﺑﻮده و ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ-ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﺑﺎزيﻫﺎ ﻧﻘﺶ اﯾﻦ اﻧﺪﯾﺸﮑﺪه در ﺟﻬﺖدﻫﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎ ﻋﻠﯿﻪ اﯾﺮان را ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ، ﮔﺰارشﻫﺎي اﯾﻦ اﻧﺪﯾﺸﮑﺪه ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ-ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ در ﺧﺼﻮص اﯾﺮان در ﺷﺶ دﺳﺘﻪ ﺗﻔﮑﯿﮏ ﺷﺪه ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﺤﺘﻮاﯾﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﯾﮑﺮد آﻣﺎري، ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه و ﺳﻬﻢ اﯾﺮان از ﺣﺠﻢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎي اﯾﻦ اﺗﺎق ﻓﮑﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﺧﻄﻮط ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﯽ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪ آﻣﺮﯾﮑﻦ اﯾﻨﺘﺮﭘﺮاﯾﺰ در ﻣﻮرد اﯾﺮان در ﺷﺶ ﺣﻮزه ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ، اﻃﻼﻋﺎت، دﻓﺎع، ﺗﺮورﯾﺴﻢ، اﻣﺮﯾﮑﺎي ﻻﺗﯿﻦ و ﻣﺮﮐﺰ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪﻫﺎي ﺣﺴﺎس و ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺰاﯾﯽ در ﺷﮑﻞﮔﯿﺮي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎرﺟﯽ دوﻟﺖ ﺗﺮاﻣﭗ در ﺧﺼﻮص اﯾﺮان داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﮑﯿﻪ ﺑﺮ دادهﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري، ﺣﺪود 85 درﺻﺪ از ﮔﺰارشﻫﺎي اﯾﻦ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪ ﻣﺘﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺑﺮ دو ﺣﻮزه ﺧﺎورﻣﯿﺎﻧﻪ و ﺗﺮورﯾﺴﻢ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ را در ﺑﺮﺟﺴﺘﻪﺳﺎزي ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪ ﺳﭙﺎه ﭘﺎﺳﺪاران اﻧﻘﻼب اﺳﻼﻣﯽ، ﺗﺮور ﺳﺮدار ﺳﻠﯿﻤﺎﻧﯽ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ راﻫﺒﺮد ﺧﺮوج از ﺑﺮﺟﺎم ﺗﻮﺳﻂ دوﻟﺖ اﯾﺎﻻتﻣﺘﺤﺪه داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ، ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﺑﺎزيﻫﺎ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ راﻫﺒﺮد اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه از ﺳﻮي اﯾﻦ اﻧﺪﯾﺸﮑﺪه ﺟﻬﺖ ﺧﺮوج از ﺑﺮﺟﺎم ﻧﺸﺎن داده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﻫﺮ ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪ دﯾﮕﺮي ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺑﺎزده ﻣﻮرد اﻧﺘﻈﺎر دوﻟﺖ اﯾﺎﻻتﻣﺘﺤﺪه ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. درﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ، ﺧﺮوج از ﺑﺮﺟﺎم ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺷﮑﻞﮔﯿﺮي ﯾﮏ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻧﺶ در ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ دو ﮐﺸﻮر ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ ﻫﯿﭻ ﮐﺸﻮري اﻧﮕﯿﺰه ﺧﺮوج از وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﻌﺎدﻟﯽ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد را ﻧﺨﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ.

American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a think tank that has a leading role in shaping US republicans’ foreign policy. The current study applies a descriptive-analytic method and the Game Theory to indicate the role of AEI in shaping US foreign policy against Iran. This study follows a descriptive-analytic method to content-analyze AEI’s published reports on Iran. The present study also adopts a statistical approach to calculate the weight and share of Iran related reports that are published at this think tank. The results indicate that AEI’s policy against Iran, including the six categories of Middle East, Intelligence, Defense, Terrorism, Latin America and Critical Threats’ Center has a significant effect in shaping Trump administration’s Iran foreign policy. According to the statistical data, about 85 percent of AEI’s reports on Iran, concentrate on Middle East and Terrorism, highlighting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) threats, General Ghasem Suleimani's assassination and the development of US withdrawal from JCPOA. Finally, the application of Game Theory and analysis of this think tank's strategies toward the withdrawal of US from JCPOA indicates that other choices of US against Iran will reduce the efficiency of desired Iran diplomacy. Therefore, US withdrawal from JCPOA will result in a Nash Equilibrium between the two countries and they won't be reluctant to get out of this equilibrium state.