ارزيابي اثرات همه‌گيري ويروس كوويد19 بر انتخاب شيوه‌هاي فعال سفر دانش‌آموزان

Evaluation the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on choosing active travel modes

با همه‌گيري ويروس كويد 19 برخي كاربران شبكه‌هاي حمل‌ونقل به دليل نگراني ابتلا به اين ويروس، شيوه سفر خود را تغيير داده‌اند. براي انجام اين مطالعه از نمونه‌يي شامل 267 پسر دانش‌آموز و 546 دختر دانش‌آموز، بر اساس يك پرسشنامه مطالعه ـ محور در شهر قم در سال 1399 استفاده شده است. نتايج برازش مدل‌هاي انتخاب لوجيت دوجمله‌يي به تفكيك جنسيت و موقعيت زماني (قبل و بعد از همه‌گيري ويروس كويد 19) مشخص كرد كه مقدار پارامتر خوبي برازش مك‌فدن براي تمامي مدل‌ها بزرگتر از 0/16 و كمتر از 0/27 است و تغييرات متغيرهاي مستقل در اين مدل‌ها در سطح مناسبي مي‌توانند تغييرات متغير وابسته را نمايش دهند. نتايج نشان داد كه ويژگي‌هاي خانوار دانش‌آموز، شيوه‌ي سفر والدين در سفرهاي كاري و درك از مسافت سفر بين منزل تا مدرسه در مطلوبيت انتخاب شيوه‌هاي سفر فعال در قبل از همه‌گيري ويروس كويد 19 اثرگذار بوده است. همچنين، متغيرهاي ادراكي والدين دانش‌آموز نسبت به همه‌گيري ويروس كويد 19فقط در مدل مربوط به بعد از همه‌گيري ويروس كويد 19 مربوط به پسران معنادار شده است.

Due to simplicity, economy, and the positive effects on traffic parameters and characteristics related to personal and social health, active travel modes can play an important role in intra-city movements. However, with the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, people's travel mode choice behavior changed. In other words, some people have changed their travel modes due to concerns about being infected with the virus, which can lead to a change in their travel modes in the long term. As one of the most vulnerable groups in the Covid-19 virus epidemic, students, with a significant share of their travels in intra-city movements, should be given more attention. Therefore, it is necessary to examine how the behavior of students' active travel choices will change as a result of the Covid-19 virus epidemic. To do this, a sample of 267 boys and 546 girls was used based on a study-based questionnaire in Qom in 1399. The results of logit models (choosing and not choosing active travel modes) by gender (girl and boy) and time position (before and after the Covid-19 virus epidemic) showed that the parameter of the goodness of fit (McFadden) for all models is greater than 0.16 and less than 0.27. In other words, the independent variables in these models can significantly show the changes in the dependent variable. The results showed that the characteristics of the student household, the parents' travel mode on work trips, and the perception of the distance between home and school affect the utility of choosing active travel modes before the Covid-19 virus epidemic. Also, the perceptual variables of the student parents towards the Covid-19 virus epidemic were significant only in the model for boys. Moreover, having a large family is the only variable with a positive effect on the choice of active travel modes and increases the probability of choosing active travel modes by up to 20%. Also, having more than two passenger cars at home has the most negative effect on the dependent variable and reduces the probability of choosing active travel methods by 31%.