تاثير رابطه مبادله قيمتي بر بخش كشاورزي ايران

Effect of price terms of trade on agricultural sector in Iran

Change in relative price (price terms of trade) of each economic sector in comparison to other sectors can cause routine of allocation resources from one sector to another, In Iran agricultural and other prices either in internal market or foreign trade sector are affected by macroeconomics and sector policies(including exchange rate, trade, income, pricing, subsidies and etc) and biased from competitive prices. Therefore; agricultural price terms of trade are affected and so are variables such as investment, employment, accordingly, agricultural growth is affected. The results of the investigation show that agricultural price terms of trade has been decreasing in two recent decades. The aim of this research is quantify effects of change in relative prices on main variables and growth of agricultural sector in short and long run. This research is based on Tim series data of 1974-2000(1353-1379) and nonstructural econometrics methods including, cointegration, error correction models, vector autoregressive and cause tests. Analysis of results is based on normal cointegration vector and coefficient of models mentioned above. The results indicate that relative prices in agricultural sector are mainly affected by trade and exchange rate policies and oil income. Investment and growth in agricultural sector are affected significantly by agricultural relative price in long run; however, amount of these effects and level of significances decrease in short run.