يك الگوي چند بخشي و پويايي برنامه ريزي نيروي انساني براي برنامه سوم

A Dynamic Multisectoral Manpower Planning Model for the Iranian Economy

The basic objective of this paper is to estimate the manpower requirement of the macroeconomic targets set for the Iranian economy over the decade, which covers Iranʹs Third Development Plan. For this purpose, we formulate and implement a dynamic multisectoral computable general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. As part of our empirical results we obtain the trajectory of manpower requirements over the 1999-2009 period, differentiated by major economic sector, by standard occupational categories. And by educational levels and fields of study. A number of comparative dynamic experiments are also conducted to examine the consequence of alternative macroeconomic policies for the level and composition of labor demand. It is assumed that in the basic solution, the rates of growth of the major components of the GDP are as set in the Third Development Plan. We find that the increase in the level of employment consistent with the targets set for the major macroeconomic variables is around 1870 thousands, roughly less the half the figure envisaged in the plan. The results of the comparative dynamic experiments indicate that raising the growth rates of government expenditures and private consumption expenditures by I percent raises the level of employment by around 145, and 645 thousands, respectively. We also find that achievement of the employment targets of the Third Development Plan necessitates an increase in the growth rates of both government and private consumption expenditures by roughly 2 percent. For each dynamic experiment, we also examine the composition of total employment by major economic sectors, by standard occupational classification, and by level of education and fields of study. In a number of other experiments, we assess the consequences of the continuation of historical trends in the ratio of the "skilled" to total labor force.