برآورد تقاضاي اجتماعي آموزش عالي در ايران در دوره 88-1380

Estimation of Social Demand for Higher Education in Iran, 2001-2009

Estimating social demand for higher education is one of the major requirements of a sound planning for higher education. This article is an attempt to estimate the social demand for higher education in Iran for the period of 2001-2009 by sex, educational group, type of educational ...and age groups. Using student transition indexes from primary to secondary school, student flow tables for different chart, and the expected number of students in final high school year on the one hand and number of applicant for University Entrance Examination on the other, the social demand for higher education was estimated. These figures were then adjusted by participation rate in higher education and population estimates for each cohort. Finally, the effects of socio - ecomic and demographic factors on social demand for higher education was assessed using regression techniques. The results show a continuous decreasing rate of menʹs participation in higher education will continue to grow. Considering lower rate of women participation in labor market, this might lead to undesirable consequences on the knowledge stock of active human resources. The overall population trend of the country shows that the age combination of the applicants will change in favor of older cohort. The trends show that the unfulfilled demand for higher education will contribute greater share of the applicants for higher education in the futures, and the demand for studies in humanities will continue to grow.