پيش بيني تقاضاي انرژي در اقتصاد ايران براساس روش تجربه

Energy Demand Forecasting in Iranian Economics Based on Decomposition Approach

Using a decomposition model for a 15-year period in the form of the three scenarios of high, low and trend production growth rate, this study has predicted the demand (End - Use) for the three energy carriers in the economic production sectors include of, industry, agriculture, services, and transportation in Iranian Economics. The results show that the demand expansion path for gas and electricity is sharp. This means that due to the structural effects and energy intensity effects we are witnessing an increase in consumption in all the three scenarios. The results also indicate considerable savings in the consumption ofʹ oil derivatives resulting from a decrease in energy intensity in low and high growth rate scenarios . JEL Classification: Q41, Q49.