يك مدل سيستمي ديناميكي براي مطالعه سياستهاي حمايتي بخش كشاورزي در ايران

Self-sufficiency in agricultural section of Iran: A system dynamics approach to study the state policies

A system dynamics approach is presented in this paper to study the long-term effects of Iranian State policies to support agricultural section and gain self-sufficiency (SS) of products. Agriculture is studied as one section of the whole national economy. The self-sufficiency index is defined in terms of the ability of the economy to domestically answer the demand for food. Policies such as controlled exchange rate and fixed prices have important effects on production and export of foods. These policies are taken to support consumers and producers against high prices, to increase the SS index and the nutrition rate. In the model presented, the aim is to measure variables like export, ICOR index, the ratio of investment to surplus, and SS index against counter policies such as equilibrium prices and floating exchange rates in long term. It is shown that recommended policies to activate the whole economy are equally effective in this special section.