تحليل جريان ورودي به مخزن سدها در مدل برنامه ريزي آرماني با قيدهاي تصادفي (مطالعه موردي سد مخزني مهاباد))

Analysis of Inflows to Multiobjective Reservoir in Chance Constrained Goal Programming Model (A Case Study of Mahabad Reservoir)

In order to investigate behavior of stochastic inflows to multiobjective reservoir a probabilistic model has been used .This model can describe river flow for the purpose of forecasting future situations. To convert chance constrained goal programming (CCGP) model to its deterministic equivalents mode], OSM computer software has been developed which is written in FORTRAN 77. OSM software can extract conditional and nonconditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) of inflows to reservoir and calculates inverse CDF of inflows for flood and drought control reliability by using Newtonʹs differential interpolation method. The model is applied to the Mahabad Multiobjective reservoir which is a portion of the Urmia lake watershed . This reservoir is constructed to control water for several purposes such as municipal water supply. irrigation demands. flood control and hydroelectric power generation. Use of this model allows the reservoir manager to rank various goals according to their relative importance.