مدل پيش آگاهي خسارت كرم ميوه خوار خرما براساس عوامل آب و هوايي

Forecasting Model for Less Moth Injury (Batrachedra amydraula) Based on Climatic Conditions

Less moth is one of the major pests of date palm both in fields and stores in recent years and its injury reached to 50 - 70 percent. This research was carried out in Abadan region from 1993 to 2001. Samples were taken monthly from 10 trees located in four different date palm orchards of four villages. Percent of infested fruits were calculated by counting the number of infested dates damaged by the larvae of Less moth. Climatic data were obtained from Abadan meteorology station. Monomolecular, Logistic, Gompertz, Weibull, Richard and Multiple regression models were used to fit and construct predicting models. Less moth injury started in March and increased with temperature and relative humidity slowly and reached a maximum point in June. All of the climatic factors had significant correlation with Less moth injury but correlation of temperature and relative humidity were higher than other factors. The highest Less moth injury occurred in temperature between 21 and 36c and relative humidity of 20 and 32 percent. Based on these finding a forecasting model based on Multiple regression has been constructed.