جهش پولي نرخ ارز مورد ايران

Monetary Overshooting of Exchange Rate: Case of Iran

The monetary overshooting of exchange rate is an abnormal behavior of exchange rate .This phenomenon occurs when the exchange rate overshoots to a level higher than its long run level, due to an unexpected monetary expansion and the slowness of adjustment of goods market compared to the asset market. In view of the importance and multiplicity of implementation of monetary policies in any country and Iran in particular, this phenomenon may be of a crucial significance.The results drawn from this research suggests that the overshooting happens only in the short run (i.e. monthly) models. No more this will happen if we apply the seasonal data in the model. This shows that price adjustment is too fast which leads to adjustment of goods market immediately after the adjustment of asset market, in the wake of a monetary expansion. This may result from factors such as high inflationary expectations of economic factors, the uncertainty prevailing on the exchange rate market, government intervention, and etc.